As we begin a new work week, three players I am targeting today are Elly De La Cruz, Brett Bateman, and Landen Roupp.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Monday, September 14.
MLB Player Props Today
- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (66¢, Kalshi)
- Brett Bateman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
- Landen Roupp Over 1.5 Walks (98¢, Kalshi)
Dodgers vs Reds Player Prop
It is not too often that I am targeting a two-time Cy Young award winner as a fade candidate. While Tarik Skubal has been good for the Dodgers, 2.93 ERA, 2.54 FIP, and 144 ERA+, he has gone under his strikeouts line (7.5 tonight) in seven of his last eight starts. Two starts ago, he allowed 10 hits in 5 and 2/3 innings against the Cardinals. He only allowed two runs in that start as he did against the Reds, but De La Cruz was one Red that got to him.
De La Cruz homered in the fourth inning off Skubal, a sign of his immense improvement against left-handed pitchers. This season, De La Cruz is slashing .352/.418/.662 with 27 runs scored, 10 home runs, and 32 RBIs in 145 at-bats. Skubal has allowed more contact to left-handed hitters, but right-handed hitters have done more damage against him with 19 doubles and nine homers.
De La Cruz will bat right-handed against him as a switch-hitter and this time the rematch will take place at Great American Ball Park. Playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, De La Cruz has taken advantage. He has 13 home runs both home and away, but he is hitting .302 with a .926 OPS at home this season.
De La Cruz has a hit in 18 of his last 20 games. He has cleared this line in 16 of his last 20 games while averaging 3.5 hits, runs, and runs batted in per game. Despite the difficult matchup tonight, I like him to get there again.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (66¢, Kalshi)
Tigers vs Blue Jays Player Prop
The Cubs acquired Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline as they were in need of pitching as they push for a NL pennant. The Blue Jays acquired two prospects, Bateman and Ty Southisene, though not noteworthy names at the time. Bateman is currently the No. 16 prospect in the Blue Jays' farm system per MLB Pipeline, but he has already made an immediate impact.
Since making his MLB debut with the Blue Jays, Bateman has a hit in 24 of 31 career games. He is hitting .328 with two home runs, 11 RBI, and a .833 OPS. While Statcast has not been too impressed, Bateman grades out similarly to Steven Kwan and has been batting leadoff like Kwan as well.
He will face Troy Melton tonight, who has had a great season, but has allowed three earned runs in four straight starts and four earned in each of the last two. Left-handed hitters have given him some difficulty as he has allowed 11 home runs and a .729 OPS to them compared to two home runs and a .526 OPS against right-handed hitters.
While I don't necessarily expect a home run from Bateman tonight, he is hitting .368 against right-handed pitchers. That has helped him clear this line in six of his last 10 games, including his last three.
Pick: Brett Bateman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Giants vs Cardinals Player Prop
Roupp got off to a hot start to this season, beginning the year with a 3.30 ERA and at least six strikeouts in eight of his first 11 starts. Since then, he is 4-8 with a 4.47 ERA in his last 17 starts and the Giants have lost 12 of them. It has been a season to forget for them as Rafael Devers just went on the IL and Roupp's struggles have not helped nor his inability to find the strike zone.
Over his past 17 starts, Roupp has issued 50 walks in 90 and 2/3 innings. While he has remained elite limiting hard contact, Roupp ranks in the 17th percentile in walk rate. He has allowed two walks or more in eight straight starts and in 22 of 28 starts this season.
Roupp allows 2.6 walks per game, but we only need two tonight. The line is a likely lower tonight because the Cardinals are 27th in walk rate against right-handed pitchers. Despite that, Roupp has allowed six walks in his last two starts against the Cardinals, including four in six innings against them last Tuesday.
Roupp is usually good for at least five innings per start and that should be enough time for him to issue two walks tonight.
Pick: Landen Roupp Over 1.5 Walks (98¢, Kalshi)
