A new week kicks off with a packed 10-game MLB slate on Monday, September 14!
Our staff has dialed in on 4 best bets across the night, featuring key picks for Dodgers vs. Reds, Tigers vs. Blue Jays, Mariners vs. Angels, and more.
Check out our 4 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis..
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:45 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin Whitchurch's Dodgers vs Reds HR Pick
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
Looking at our top homer edge we have Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run tonight—with an 8.5% edge on that. That's 2.4% higher than any other hitter on today's slate. Second on that board, by the way, is Mookie Betts of the Dodgers; fourth on that list is Will Smith of the Dodgers.
So, we're obviously expecting the Dodgers' power to show out while hitting in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park tonight.
Teoscar is +500, which you can get at bet365—a really nice edge there.
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Pick: Teoscar Hernandez Home Run (+500)
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Alex Hinton's Tigers vs Blue Jays Prop Pick
By Alex Hinton
The Cubs acquired Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline as they were in need of pitching as they push for a NL pennant. The Blue Jays acquired two prospects, Bateman and Ty Southisene, though not noteworthy names at the time. Bateman is currently the No. 16 prospect in the Blue Jays' farm system per MLB Pipeline, but he has already made an immediate impact.
Since making his MLB debut with the Blue Jays, Bateman has a hit in 24 of 31 career games. He is hitting .328 with two home runs, 11 RBI, and a .833 OPS. While Statcast has not been too impressed, Bateman grades out similarly to Steven Kwan and has been batting leadoff like Kwan as well.
He will face Troy Melton tonight, who has had a great season, but has allowed three earned runs in four straight starts and four earned in each of the last two. Left-handed hitters have given him some difficulty as he has allowed 11 home runs and a .729 OPS to them compared to two home runs and a .526 OPS against right-handed hitters.
While I don't necessarily expect a home run from Bateman tonight, he is hitting .368 against right-handed pitchers. That has helped him clear this line in six of his last 10 games, including his last three.
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Pick: Brett Bateman Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
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Tony Sartori's Giants vs Cardinals Over/Under Bet
By Tony Sartori
A good pitching duel should be in store, with the Giants' Landen Roupp slated to face the Cardinals' Quinn Mathews.
Roupp excels at limiting hard contact, given that he ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in barrel rate and 97th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Mathews has found his footing after a shaky start to his rookie campaign. He's allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past three starts, posting a 2.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch.
The most recent of those outings came against San Francisco, a game in which Mathews allowed just two runs in six innings of work. There were only three total runs scored in that contest.
His underlying metrics suggest that this success is likely to continue. If he qualified, Mathews would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Read Sartori's Monday Leadoff here:
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Pick: Under 8 (Play to -120)
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Derek Carty's Mariners vs Angels Pitching Prop
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Detmers's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 16.11 outs, while oddsmakers are implying 17.96.
The model believes there is a 59% chance he records fewer than 18 outs, so there is value on the under at +120.
This play is good down to at least -116.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's projections at EV Analytics!
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Pick: Reid Detmers Under 17.5 Outs (+120)
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