The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on September 14, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CHSN.
The Guardians are favored by -153 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +125 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
- White Sox vs Guardians Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-148, FanDuel)
My White Sox vs Guardians best bet is the Cleveland moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
White Sox vs Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +150 | 7 -100o / -119u | +125 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -182 | 7 -100o / -119u | -153 |
- White Sox vs Guardians moneyline: White Sox +125, Guardians -153
- White Sox vs Guardians over/under: 7 (-100o / -119u)
- White Sox vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+150 ), White Sox +1.5 (-182)
White Sox vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Sean Newcomb (LHP, CHW) | Stat | Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 13-7 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 2.77/3.89 | ERA / xERA | 3.78/3.82 |
| 2.88/3.90 | FIP / xFIP | 3.49/2.78 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 25.7% |
| 45.3% | GB% | 43.4% |
| .281 | BABIP | .285 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 98 | Location+ | 105 |
White Sox vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
Every time I come on the show, I somehow find a way to fade the White Sox. It went terribly at first, but it's been better of late because they have finally started to lose some steam after a great first three-quarters of the season. They're 3–7 over their last 10 games and nine games under .500 on the road this year.
The White Sox lead the Guardians by just a half-game entering today, but the Guardians are also only one game up on the Blue Jays for the third wild-card spot. The White Sox could easily find themselves out of the playoff picture by the end of this stretch.
I think the Guardians get Game 1 done behind future AL Cy Young winner Gavin Williams. Since the start of July, Williams has struck out 105 batters in 62 innings. That’s a 43% rate—around 15 Ks per nine. His velocity has jumped a tick during this stretch, his Pitching+ mark has jumped by five points, and his hard-contact allowed and barrel rate have both dropped.
I don't know if there's any better sweeper in the game right now; he is completely dialed in with that pitch, and the way he mixes it with his fastball is excellent.
On top of that, he has reverse splits:
- Career: .280 wOBA allowed to lefties vs. .320 to righties
- This Season: 2.6 xFIP allowed to lefties vs. 3.0 to righties
He’s likely going to face around seven lefties in the White Sox lineup today. He’s easily one of the three best pitchers in the American League at the moment, and he’s just amazing.
On the other side, the White Sox are running out Sean Newcomb and Sean Burke, making this more of a bullpen approach.
Looking at the late innings, the White Sox bullpen is a little gassed, whereas the Guardians' bullpen is pretty well rested—and slightly better. Cleveland always has a really good bullpen and a reliable defense, while the White Sox defense has been below average all season.
Simply put, the Guardians have the pitching advantage, the defensive advantage, and I think they get it done in this massive Game 1.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-148, FanDuel)
