Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Unleashing on Two MLB Opening Day Games
Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
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The 2018 MLB season is officially here, and sharp bettors have wasted no time getting down on today’s monster 13-game slate! Early season games are a favorite opportunity of wiseguys to find value, considering that most recreational bettors lean on last season’s results, and therefore overvalue last season’s good teams, while avoiding bad ones.
After examining all percentages, line movement and bet signals for Thursday’s Opening Day schedule, today’s Red Sox-Rays (4 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Diamondbacks (10:10 p.m. ET) games are attracting major attention from professional bettors.
All data as of 11:30 a.m. ET
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (+144)
4 p.m. ET
Boston opened as a healthy -175 favorite at Bookmaker.eu and of course, recreatoinal bettors are jumping all over the Red Sox. Seventy-nine percent of tickets and 86% of dollars wagered on the moneyline have taken the Red Sox, yet the line has fallen to -160.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which report sharp action across the live betting market — triggered a Steam Move at Tampa Bay +158 and a Reverse Line move at +150.
While the public is loading up on Boston, wiseguys are buying back the value with the Rays, setting up a classic sharps vs. squares showdown on Opening Day.
Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8.5
10:10 p.m. ET
Pinnacle opened this total at 9 and professionals have pummeled the number over the last couple of days. Sports Insights’ Bet Signals are reporting one Reverse Line Move and three Steam Moves on the under, two of which were triggered at Pinnacle.
Because Pinnacle accepts high-limits from professional bettors, it’s clear that sharp money has consistently pounded this under.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Boston is getting 80% of moneyline bets vs. Tampa Bay but you see the line move from Red Sox -160 to -125. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on the Rays.
Thirsty for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial, which gives you a fully-customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt