The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on September 12, 2026. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
The Padres are favored by -161 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Giants Prediction
- Padres vs Giants Pick: Lean Giants F5 ML (+135, bet365) | Play at +130 or Better
My Padres vs Giants best bet is to lean on the Giants F5 moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Padres vs Giants Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 8 -110o / -110u | -161 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8 -110o / -110u | +135 |
- Padres vs Giants moneyline: Padres -161, Giants +135
- Padres vs Giants over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Padres vs Giants spread: Padres -1.5 (+105), Giants +1.5 (-125)
Padres vs Giants Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Cesar Perdomo (LHP, SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.00/4.38 | ERA / xERA | 0.90/3.14 |
| 4.17/4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 3.40/3.46 |
| 11.4% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 44.7% | GB% | 48.0% |
| .251 | BABIP | .208 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Padres vs Giants Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a tough slate. As of this writing, nearly 11 pm ET, we’re still missing four pitchers, while three games have no market at all. Just a few games are even offering strikeout props.
On top of all that, what does exist for Saturday is fairly tight, but I couldn't stop at just two games, so I’ll be leaving you with a lean for a Saturday afternoon game.
Some people seem to think Michael King has completely rebounded with a 3.00 ERA this year.
With a career-worst 11.4 K-BB% that includes his relief years and no single estimator below 4, I tend to disagree.
While King’s 33 Hard% is very strong and within a point of his career average, his 8.4% Barrels/BBE is the second highest of his career behind last year’s 11.4%.
King’s success is predicated on a career-best .251 BABIP and 82.1 LOB%. He’s been much closer to around four and a third runs per nine, a number BARTOLO appears to agree with.
We don’t know much about his opposition, Cesar Perdomo, making his third major league appearance and second start. He didn’t even reach 50 innings at AAA.
Perdomo is a non-prospect, ranked 41st in the organization by Fangraphs with a 35+ Future Value grade. A 60 grade changeup is his only above-average pitch.
A 22.6 K-BB% in 72.1 AA innings this season is impressive, but dropped to 7.5% at AAA.
However, he does have a 17.1 K-BB% and an acceptable 40 HardHit%. Pitch modeling likes the changeup (56 PitchingBot, 115 Pitching+).
There is some conflict between his 5.52 Bot ERA and 96 Pitching+, but I’ll accept BARTOLO’s 4.59 projection with a range between 4.49 and 4.70.
That would only put him about a quarter run behind King.
The projected San Diego lineup averages a 101 wRC+ against RHIP (just .144 ISO), 102 wRC+ on the road and 102 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Looks like a league-average offense to me.
The San Francisco projected lineup (and I’ve swapped out Knizner for Cavanaugh) averages a 101 wRC+ against RHP (.139 ISO), 85 wRC+ at home and 102 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Rafael Devers has a 133 wRC+ at home, 175 wRC+ and .326 ISO vs RHP and 208 wRC+ over the last month.
Bryce Eldridge has a 139 wRC+ at home, 121 wRC+ and .177 ISO vs RHP and 166 wRC+ over the last month.
These two hitters make an otherwise empty lineup slightly formidable.
Defensively, the Padres project a whopping 39 FRV ahead of the Giants on Saturday, and I’m not even going to bother considering bullpens.
I don’t believe the offenses are as close as the numbers quoted above. BARTOLO has them separated by 7 points of wRC+ vs RHP. Guys like Tatis and Merrill were so bad in the first half that their season numbers probably don’t accurately portray their true talent, even with breakout second halves. Bogaerts may be toast, unfortunately.
And I tend to hold out for a larger value flag when dealing more with pitcher projections than performance at the major league level, which is why I’m keeping this as a lean at a number I would otherwise normally play (F5 +126 FanDuel).
I would need at least +130 in this spot.
Picks: Lean Giants F5 ML (+135, bet365) | Play at +130 or Better
