Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, September 12.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- (Luzardo scratch, no longer a play) Phillies/Braves Under 7.5 (-110), 0.55u | Bet through 7.5
- Athletics +156, 0.5u | Bet to +130
Phillies @ Braves Pick
JESUS LUZARDO HAS BEEN SCRATCHED! I'll leave the analysis for the rest of the game, but the under is no longer an endorsed play.
Truist Park in Atlanta is a perfectly neutral run environment with weather only expected to impact Saturday’s game by 1% or less, according to early forecasts. Scheduled umpire Adam Hamari suppresses run scoring only slightly (-0.7%). It all rounds back to neutral.
You may have heard about Jesus Luzardo’s last start because every complete game in this day and age is news. Even more so when the pitcher allows two hits, a walk and strikes out 12 with only four hard hit batted balls (25%). Oh, and it was also against Atlanta. Surprisingly, the first time he’s faced his division rivals all year.
Over his last 15 starts, Luzardo has 11 quality starts, all with two earned runs or less and he has recorded 7th inning outs in 11 of those 15 starts as well.
His numbers break down to a 27.1 K-BB%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE, 1.71 ERA, 2.30 xERA, 2.34 FIP and 2.72 xFIP during this stretch.
We probably have to mention the six unearned runs during this period and eight on the season, which shouldn’t shock anyone who understands the Philadelphia defense (with Saturday’s projecting for -16 FRV on the season).
Yet, even adding those six runs would only bring him up to a 2.25 ERA, more in line with the estimators quoted above.
Luzardo has absolutely smothered LHBs, holding them below a .200 wOBA and xwOBA this season, while the Braves will not only play guys like Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris against southpaws, but generally bat them in the top half of the order.
Olson (118) and Harris (108) actually have the highest wRC+ against LHP in Saturday’s projected lineup, which tells you something about how well it’s been going for the Braves against southpaws.
With Lane Thomas hitting the IL this week, BARTOLO’s projected lineup averages just an 81 wRC+ against LHP and 79 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
Ha-Seong Kim’s -43 wRC+ against southpaws probably isn’t real, but there’s also Brewer Hicklen with too small a sample to draw a conclusion from and three other batters below a 95 wRC+ against lefties.
If Luzardo does need some help on Saturday (he threw 109 pitches last time out, but has hit that mark in three of his last five starts), the Philly bullpen has been a solid unit with a 3.98 FIP, 3.75 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA over the last 30 days with BARTOLO ranking them fourth best on the year.
Tyler Mahle is suddenly relevant again. Quite an accomplishment after posting an ERA above five for the Giants.
He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs (and only that many once) in any of his six starts for the Braves. The strikeouts have been quirky with three starts of four or less and three of seven to nine, but Mahle’s velocity is up too.
It actually started rising before he left San Francisco. After posting a 92.2 mph fastball average through his first 11 starts, he brought it up to 92.9 mph over his next four starts, but then up to 93.4 mph over his last eight starts with only one start below 93 mph in this time.
Mahle also has an impressive 19.2 K-BB% over his last eight starts, though it has dropped below 8.5% in three of his last four starts, all on the road against difficult offenses (Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Minnesota).
All in all, Mahlle’s 4.05 ERA is a pretty strong fit for estimators ranging from a 3.85 xFIP to a 4.12 xERA this year. His xERA as a Brave is also 4.12, but with a 3.2 xFIP.
Mahle is and almost always has been a reverse splitter. RHBs sit barely above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs right around .280. There’s a two point or less split between his wOBA and xwOBA in either instance.
This could play to his benefit against the Phillies, who are not very analytically inclined and generally run out six LHBs against RHPs. All three right-handed regulars for the Phillies are below a 90 wRC+ against RHP and none exceed a 60 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
In fact, Saturday’s projected Philadelphia lineup does average a 103 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP, but just an 88 wRC+ on the road and 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
A solid Atlanta defense is projected to put 11 FRV on the field on Saturday and the bullpen is BARTOLO’s 9th best, but with a 4.36 FIP, 4.34 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA over the last 30 days that borders them on the bottom third of the league, despite their 2.97 ERA (86 LOB%) over the last month.
Being able to discount the environment helps us gain more confidence in a projected total below 7.5 here.
Tyler Mahle is pitching his best baseball of the year (in a few years) and Jesus Luzardo will probably get several down ballot Cy Young votes.
Add in a pair of offenses that may be overvalued in this spot and at least one and maybe two good bullpens…well, not even the Phillies’ defense scares me off of this one.
Picks: Under 7.5 (-110), 0.55u | Bet through 7.5
Mariners @ Athletics Pick
On the surface and even underneath the hood, Bryan Woo has posted another strong season. His 19.8 K-BB% may be behind last year’s breakout, but still the second best of his career.
His 4.03 ERA is about a half run above a tight set of estimators ranging from a 3.34 FIP to a 3.69 dERA and his pitch modeling (3.06 Bot ERA, 113 Pitching+) is best on the board Saturday, among confirmed pitchers.
Woo’s 66.1 LOB% is 7.6 points below his career average and even his .273 BABIP ties for his career worst in his rookie season.
But then, there’s also home Woo and road Woo. The latter, who we're getting here, has a 7.8 point lower K-BB (16.2%) and a full run higher xFIP (4.10 to 3.11).
Batters have a .212 wOBA against Woo in Seattle, including a .102 wOBA for 109 RHBs, but a .337 wOBA against him on the road with batters from either side of the plate within four points of that mark. Twelve of his 18 home runs have been surrendered on the road in fewer than four more innings.
And Woo hasn’t even pitched in Sacramento yet this year.
A wrecked Sacramento projected lineup includes just a single batter (Zack Gelof 106) above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year. They average just a 77 wRC+ and .133 ISO against RHP, though a bit better at home (94 wRC+).
There’s nothing I can do to pretty the numbers up, unless I substitute the wrong Max Muncy and even then…it’s still ugly.
However, the Seattle defense behind Woo (or at least the projected one) has been awful, sitting at -20 FRV, even a run worse than the A’s projected defense, and the bullpen, while ranked BARTOLO’s 6th best, has the worst ERA in the league over the last month (7.16), supported by a 5.34 FIP, allowing 1.9 HR/9.
The xFIP (4.01) and SIERA (3.76) are more middle of the league, but the three indicators averaged out put the Mariners among the bottom third of the league over the last month.
If home runs are your problem, Sacramento is the last place you want to pitch.
Gage Jump is a volatile (5.12 ERA, 10.6 BB%), but exciting young pitcher (24.9 K%, 6.6% Barrels/BBE).
He has six quality starts, all with two runs or less. He’s struck out at least seven in eight of his 19 starts.
He’s also allowed at least four runs in no more than five innings eight times and struck out five or fewer 10 times.
Jump has sat below 96 mph in seven of 19 starts, but also 97 or better five times. His last four starts have been two of each.
Sometimes volatility is what you want, especially in a sizeable dog.
BARTOLO projects four left-handed Mariners for Saturday, but that’s not really an issue with batters from either side of the plate sporting a wOBA and xwOBA between .319 and .338 against Jump,
However, the projected Seattle lineup as a whole is averaging just a .131 ISO against LHP this season. On the road, against LHP and over the last 30 days, they’re average between a 100 and 104 wRC+ for each.
As mentioned above, the projected A’s defense has accumulated -19 FRV, but while BARTOLO ranks the bullpen 29th in the league, they actually have the 6th best estimators over the last 30 days with a 2.84 FIP, 3.88 xFIP and 3.76 SIERA. In contrast to Seattle, the Sacramento bullpen has allowed just 0.2 HR/9.
Unsustainable, but they’re pitching half their games in Sacramento while doing this!
With defenses and base running both washes, I still have Woo two-thirds of a run ahead of Jump, but the volatility is good news with this price and Woo is lesser than his whole on the road.
I’m not going to force an offensive comparison, but bullpens are interesting. It’s a 23 team gap for BARTOLO’s season numbers, but nearly a full run gap going the other way over the last 30 days, almost all bases on home runs and I think I’ve emphasized where they’re playing enough here.
Picks: Athletics +156, 0.5u | Bet to +130
Padres @ Giants Pick
This is a tough slate. As of this writing, nearly 11 pm ET, we’re still missing four pitchers, while three games have no market at all. Just a few games are even offering strikeout props.
On top of all that, what does exist for Saturday is fairly tight, but I couldn't stop at just two games, so I’ll be leaving you with a lean for a Saturday afternoon game.
Some people seem to think Michael King has completely rebounded with a 3.00 ERA this year.
With a career worst 11.4 K-BB% that includes his relief years and without a single estimator below four, I tend to disagree.
While King’s 33 Hard% is very strong and within a point of his career average, his 8.4% Barrels/BBE is the second highest of his career behind last year’s 11.4%.
King’s success is predicated on a career best .251 BABIP and 82.1 LOB%. He’s been much closer to around four and a third runs per nine, a number BARTOLO appears to agree with.
We don’t know much about his opposition, Cesar Perdomo, making his third major league appearance and second start. He didn’t even reach 50 innings at AAA.
Perdomo is a non-prospect, ranked 41st in the organization by Fangraphs with a 35+ Future Value grade. A 60 grade changeup is his only above average pitch.
A 22.6 K-BB% in 72.1 AA innings this season is impressive, but dropped to 7.5% at AAA.
However, he does have a 17.1 K-BB% and acceptable 40 HardHit% through his first 10 major league innings. Pitch modeling likes the changeup (56 PitchingBot, 115 Pitching+).
There is some conflict between his 5.52 Bot ERA and 96 Pitching+, but I’ll accept BARTOLO’s 4.59 projection with a range between 4.49 and 4.70.
That would only put him about a quarter run behind King.
The projected San Diego lineup averages a 101 wRC+ against RHIP (just .144 ISO), 102 wRC+ on the road and 102 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Looks like a league average offense to me.
The San Francisco projected lineup (and I’ve swapped out Knizner for Cavanaugh) averages a 101 wRC+ against RHP (.139 ISO), 85 wRC+ at home and 102 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Rafael Devers has a 133 wRC+ at home, 175 wRC+ and .326 ISO vs RHP and 208 wRC+ over the last month.
Bryce Eldridge has a 139 wRC+ at home, 121 wRC+ and .177 ISO vs RHP and 166 wRC+ over the last month.
These two hitters make an otherwise empty lineup slightly formidable.
Defensively, the Padres project a whopping 39 FRV ahead of the Giants on Saturday and I’m not even going to bother considering bullpens.
I don’t believe the offenses are as close as the numbers quoted above. BARTOLO has them separated by 7 points of wRC+ vs RHP. Guys like Tatis and Merrill were so bad in the first half that their season numbers probably don’t accurately portray their true talent, even with breakout second halves. Bogaerts may be toast, unfortunately.
And I tend to hold out for a larger value flag when dealing more with pitcher projections than performance at the major league level, which is why I’m keeping this as a lean at a number I would otherwise normally play (F5 +126 FanDuel).
I would need at least +130 in this spot.
Picks: Lean Giants F5 +126 | Play at +130 or better
