Check out our 3 MLB Best Bets Today for Saturday, Sept. 12.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's Mets vs Yankees Best Bet
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 15.45 pitching outs for Gerrit Cole compared to 17.50 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 65% of the time, resulting in a 42% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $42.25.
This play is good down to at least -146.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 Outs (+118)
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Sean Zerillo's Guardians vs Twins Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Under in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool providing our PRO subscribers access to all the live data I use to project games every day.
Here's a sneak peek at what BARTOLO spits out for this game:
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Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Mariners vs Athletics Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
On the surface and even underneath the hood, Bryan Woo has posted another strong season. His 19.8 K-BB% may be behind last year’s breakout, but still the second best of his career.
His 4.03 ERA is about a half run above a tight set of estimators ranging from a 3.34 FIP to a 3.69 dERA, and his pitch modeling (3.06 Bot ERA, 113 Pitching+) is best on the board Saturday, among confirmed pitchers.
Woo’s 66.1 LOB% is 7.6 points below his career average, and even his .273 BABIP ties for his career worst in his rookie season.
But then, there’s also home Woo and road Woo. The latter, who we're getting here, has a 7.8-point lower K-BB (16.2%) and a full run higher xFIP (4.10 to 3.11).
Batters have a .212 wOBA against Woo in Seattle, including a .102 wOBA for 109 RHBs, but a .337 wOBA against him on the road, with batters from either side of the plate within four points of that mark. Twelve of his 18 home runs have been surrendered on the road in fewer than four more innings.
And Woo hasn’t even pitched in Sacramento yet this year.
A wrecked Sacramento projected lineup includes just a single batter (Zack Gelof 106) above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year. They average just a 77 wRC+ and .133 ISO against RHP, though a bit better at home (94 wRC+).
There’s nothing I can do to pretty up the numbers, unless I substitute the wrong Max Muncy, and even then… it’s still ugly.
However, the Seattle defense behind Woo (or at least the projected one) has been awful, sitting at -20 FRV, even a run worse than the A’s projected defense, and the bullpen, while ranked BARTOLO’s 6th best, has the worst ERA in the league over the last month (7.16), supported by a 5.34 FIP, allowing 1.9 HR/9.
The xFIP (4.01) and SIERA (3.76) are more middle-of-the-league, but the three indicators averaged out put the Mariners in the bottom third of the league over the last month.
If home runs are your problem, Sacramento is the last place you want to pitch.
Gage Jump is a volatile (5.12 ERA, 10.6 BB%), but exciting young pitcher (24.9 K%, 6.6% Barrels/BBE).
He has six quality starts, all with two runs or less. He’s struck out at least seven in eight of his 19 starts.
He’s also allowed at least four runs in no more than five innings eight times and struck out five or fewer 10 times.
Jump has sat below 96 mph in seven of 19 starts, but also 97 or better five times. His last four starts have been two of each.
Sometimes volatility is what you want, especially in a sizeable dog.
BARTOLO projects four left-handed Mariners for Saturday, but that’s not really an issue with batters from either side of the plate sporting a wOBA and xwOBA between .319 and .338 against Jump,
However, the projected Seattle lineup as a whole is averaging just a .131 ISO against LHP this season. On the road, against LHP and over the last 30 days, they’re averaging between a 100 and 104 wRC+ for each.
As mentioned above, the projected A’s defense has accumulated -19 FRV, but while BARTOLO ranks the bullpen 29th in the league, they actually have the 6th best estimators over the last 30 days with a 2.84 FIP, 3.88 xFIP and 3.76 SIERA. In contrast to Seattle, the Sacramento bullpen has allowed just 0.2 HR/9.
Unsustainable, but they’re pitching half their games in Sacramento while doing this!
With defenses and base running both washed, I still have Woo two-thirds of a run ahead of Jump, but the volatility is good news with this price, and Woo is lesser than his whole on the road.
I’m not going to force an offensive comparison, but bullpens are interesting. It’s a 23-team gap for BARTOLO’s season numbers, but nearly a full run gap going the other way over the last 30 days, almost all based on home runs, and I think I’ve emphasized where they’re playing enough here.
Picks: Athletics +150 (FanDuel), 0.5u | Bet to +130
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