Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Giolito, Bundy Go At It On South Side

Credit:

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Wow, that was some unnecessary sweating for a game that was 2-2 in extra innings, as was the case in yesterday’s Royals-Cardinals Under 8 bet, but we thankfully managed to pull it out and extend the winning streak to four. Let’s make it one more on this Thursday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 33-18-2, +12.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Cardinals Under 8, Junis vs. Wacha
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox | O/U: 9.5
2:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Dylan Bundy (2-6, 4.70 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (3-4, 6.42)

The O’s and Chi Sox wrap up a four-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field today with a promising pitching matchup that could place a final outcome below its relative high total of 9.5.

Of course, the first name that sticks out is Giolito, whom I’m 4-1 with this season in over/under bets. Overall, Giolito has actually registered a 6-2 record in his eight starts in favor of unders.

While we can’t put most of that success on the big 6-foot-6 right-hander — I mean, he actually has more walks (34) than strikeouts (27) over 47.2 innings — but we can lean on better days in the immediate future for Giolito.

Since a nightmarish performance against the defending champion Astros in late April, Giolito — a former first-round pick — has pitched into the sixth inning or later in four of his last five starts, yielding three runs or fewer in all but one of those as well.

This is a guy who excels when he has his trademark confidence. He appears to be regaining that based on his recent work and he’ll be in a fine spot to continue that, taking on an opponent that strikes out a bunch. Giolito’s strikeout rate has to go up at some point and it can begin to happen here against the Orioles, who have recorded the sixth-most team strikeouts per game (9.24) in baseball.

The White Sox also struggle in this department, striking out 9.20 times per game, which is actually one spot behind Baltimore.

That’s good news for a guy such as Bundy, who is logging a career-best 10.57 K/9 up to this point; the right-hander hadn’t averaged more than a strikeout per inning any of his previous big-league seasons.

But perhaps the biggest factor for Bundy’s potential today is the fact that this is an afternoon affair. Remarkably, the former first-round draft pick has surrendered a grand total of five runs (only two earned) in his four starts this year during the day, spanning 25.2 innings. That’s a 0.70 ERA, to be specific.

The Tulsa native has been rounding back into form following his infamous zero-inning, seven-run, four-homer outing a couple of weeks ago. Following that, he twirled seven shutout innings with seven Ks against the Rays before allowing four runs in Boston in his most recent outing, which isn’t bad considering how hard it is to pitch at Fenway. He also picked up eight strikeouts in the effort, too, so there’s some proof that Bundy is ascending.

Play: UNDER 9.5 (-110)

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