While it's NFL Opening Day, Major League Baseball rolls on towards the postseason with another all-day slate on Wednesday, September 9.
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today, including picks for Twins vs Tigers and Nationals vs Padres.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Twins vs Tigers Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system targets divisional underdogs in MLB regular season games that receive low public support but show signs of sharp action or value.
These dogs have moneyline support from less than 30% of bettors, yet still experience little or no negative line movement, suggesting the smart money is holding the line.
Additionally, these bets occur in division games, where familiarity and tighter matchups often reduce the gap between underdog and favorite.
The bet count is modestly above average, further hinting at targeted action rather than mass public overreaction.
For what it’s worth, our own Sean Zerillo power rates Zebby Matthews (4.22 wFIP) as better than Keider Montero (4.27 wFIP), the Twins bullpen (3.84 wFIP) as better than the Tigers bullpen (4.08 wFIP), and the Twins lineup (106 wRC+) as better than the Tigers lineup (99 wRC+).
Minnesota looks like the sharp play.
Pick: Twins ML (+100 or Better)
| | | |
Ryan Minion's Nationals vs Padres Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
The Padres will host the Nationals on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Petco Park in San Diego. Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Friars, while Jackson Kent will take the mound for the Nats.
Kent, a young lefty, has mostly struggled across five starts this season (24 IP, 5.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), and I think the Padres will tee off against him in this matchup.
Specifically, I think Fernando Tatis Jr. will have a big day.
Tatis has been white-hot, running a 151 wRC+ since the start of August. He’s also got a 160 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season — and that includes his rough early-season slump.
Kent relies a bit too heavily on his swing-and-miss stuff, and he has serious control issues (19 walks across his first five starts). That’s a problem against Tatis, who is a rather disciplined hitter.
I think Tatis has a massive day at the plate on Wednesday.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB
| | | |
Nick Galaida's Rays vs Braves Best Bet
By Nick Galaida
Jax hasn't faced more than 17 batters, thrown more than 63 pitches, or completed more than three innings in a start since August 2nd.
The Rays have been very careful in monitoring pitcher workloads when guys are coming back from injuries. They have a fully rested arm barn heading into Wednesday's action, which gives them plenty of options to cover innings if they don't want to push Jax too aggressively.
Pick: Griffin Jax Under 14.5 Outs (+100 or Better)
| | | |
Derek Carty's Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Henderson's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 15.63 pitching outs, while oddsmakers are implying 17.96. The model believes there is a 64% chance he records fewer than 18 outs.
This play is good down to at least -137.
Pick: Logan Henderson Under 17.5 Outs (-137 or Better)
| | | |
