Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, September 9.
Through 30 editions of this column, Minion has posted a 180-145-3 record.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Astros vs Phillies NRFI
- Red Sox -1.5
- Jarren Duran Over 1.5 HRR
- Yankees -1.5
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRR
Nationals vs Padres Picks
The Padres will host the Nationals on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Petco Park in San Diego. Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Friars, while Jackson Kent will take the mound for the Nats.
Kent, a young lefty, has mostly struggled across five starts this season (24 IP, 5.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), and I think the Padres will tee off against him in this matchup.
Specifically, I think Fernando Tatis Jr. will have a big day.
Tatis has been white-hot, running a 151 wRC+ since the start of August. He’s also got a 160 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season — and that includes his rough early-season slump.
Kent relies a bit too heavily on his swing-and-miss stuff, and he has serious control issues (19 walks across his first five starts). That’s a problem against Tatis, who is a rather disciplined hitter.
I think Tatis has a massive day at the plate on Wednesday.
Picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-173) | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB (-102)
Astros vs Phillies Picks
The Phillies will host the Astros on Wednesday night in the second of a three-game interleague set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
We’ve got an excellent pitching matchup in this game: Cristopher Sanchez vs. Hunter Brown.
Sanchez is still making his Cy Young case, running a 2.58 ERA with 207 strikeouts on the season, including a 2.11 ERA with 50 strikeouts over his past 42 frames (since the start of August).
Though not as dominant as Sanchez, Brown has been very good since returning from injury in mid-June, running a 3.66 ERA with 76 strikeouts across 76 frames.
I expect a pitcher’s duel between these two, especially in the very early part of the game.
Picks: NRFI (-128)
Angels vs Red Sox Picks
The Red Sox will host the Angels on Wednesday evening in the last of a three-game homestand at Fenway Park in Boston. Jake Bennett will start for Boston, while Ryan Johnson will start for the Halos.
Suffice it to say, this pitching matchup heavily favors Boston.
Bennett has been borderline elite since joining the Red Sox rotation, churning out a 3.34 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across nearly 100 frames.
Meanwhile, Johnson has yet to figure it out at the Major League level, running a 5.17 ERA in 18 outings across 78 innings pitched. He should struggle against a Boston lineup that has been red-hot over the past two months.
Duran has faced Johnson twice before, and he’s 1-for-2 with a two-run home run — Jarren launched a low sinker, a pitch that Johnson throws around 20% of the time with low efficiency.
Opposing hitters are running a .510 xwOBA against that pitch, and I’m banking on Duran bashing another one in a Boston blowout on Wednesday.
Picks: Red Sox -1.5 (-103) | Jarren Duran Over 1.5 HRR (-122)
Rockies vs Yankees Picks
The Yankees and Rockies will duke it out on Wednesday night in the last of a three-game interleague set at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Max Fried will start for New York, while Tomoyuki Sugano will take the mound for Colorado.
Fried has been phenomenal this season, running a 2.73 ERA and .99 WHIP across 96 innings. The Yankees have kept him on a short leash over the past few months as he recovers from a left elbow injury, but he’s been stretching out and pitching well nonetheless.
The same can’t be said of Sugano, who is running a 5.19 ERA this season across over 130 frames. While you could blame the Coors Field Factor, he’s actually been worse on the road (5.46 ERA) than he has at home (4.96 ERA).
Given this game will be in the Bronx, I suspect Sugano struggles while Fried shines, and the Yanks come away with a blowout victory.
I also think Cody Bellinger will have a big game.
In six prior at-bats against Sugano, Bellinger has three hits.
Bellinger has a pretty sizable platoon advantage in this matchup, as Sugano struggles against lefties (.378 wOBA allowed this season) while Cody bashes righties (116 wRC+ this season).
I actually like Sugano’s arsenal, but his three-quarters arm slot gives lefties like Bellinger a long, clean look at the ball.
Picks: Yankees -1.5 (-115) | Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRR (-146)
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 9
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Astros vs Phillies NRFI
- Red Sox -1.5
- Jarren Duran Over 1.5 HRR
- Yankees -1.5
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRR
