The NFL returns tonight and, amid one of the best sports weeks of the year, we must not forget that baseball is still on.
Despite the US Open, college football, the NFL, and even Champions League soccer, we have baseball from early in the afternoon all the way through the night.
Last week, we found the green thanks to a late Juan Soto home run. I have three more players circled to find the outfield bleachers tonight, so let’s not waste any more time.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Wednesday, September 9.
MLB Player Props Today
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (16%, Kalshi)
- Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits (16%, Kalshi)
- Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Home Runs
Rays vs Braves Player Prop
Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return from injury was met with plenty of struggles. Despite hitting five home runs in August, the former MVP hit just .243 with a .729 OPS. He was striking out at a much higher rate than usual and, at times, looked like a shell of himself.
That rust has clearly disappeared as the calendar has turned to September.
Acuña is 11-for-28 with three home runs over his last seven games. His hard-hit and fly-ball rates have jumped through the roof, and there are no signs of the 28-year-old slowing down.
Even with his struggles this season, Acuña owns a 12.4% barrel rate and ranks in the 88th percentile of qualified hitters in xSLG (.482).
Last week, we faded Griffin Jax against the Mets, and Juan Soto came through — albeit against the bullpen. Jax himself struggled, though, and the reliever-turned-starter may be running out of steam late in the season.
While he didn't allow a home run, Jax gave up six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Since June, he has thrown 59 1/3 innings and allowed 27 runs, 10 of which have come via the long ball.
Jax possesses elite swing-and-miss stuff, but his struggles limiting hard contact remain. His 9.2% barrel rate allowed ranks in the bottom 20% of qualified pitchers.
Jax also relies heavily on two pitches against right-handed hitters: the sweeper and sinker. Those two pitches account for 73% of his arsenal in that split.
Acuña against those pitches? He owns a +3 run value against the sweeper and a +11 run value against the sinker.
This is simply too high of a price on Acuña, who is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball right now.
Pick: Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (16%, Kalshi)
Diamondbacks vs Royals Player Prop
Ketel Marte has been a headache over the last couple of months, but he appears to be rounding back into form as Arizona makes its playoff push. Since returning to the lineup, Marte has recorded a hit in all seven games.
While his barrel rate is down from last season, Marte remains an underrated bat in this market. His 9.9% barrel rate is still above average, and he remains an elite hitter against southpaws.
Compared to a .234 average and .708 OPS against right-handed pitching, Marte's numbers jump to a .299 average and .931 OPS against lefties. Nearly 45% of his hits against southpaws have gone for extra bases, while his barrel rate also jumps by nearly four percentage points in the split.
He draws another favorable matchup Wednesday against reliever-turned-starter Daniel Lynch.
Lynch has incorporated his sinker much more this season, leading to an increase in ground balls, but he remains a fade candidate — especially against right-handed hitters.
Lynch relies on generating weak contact and doesn't possess much swing-and-miss stuff in his arsenal. His OPS allowed against right-handed hitters jumps by nearly 300 points, as he is much more effective when facing fellow lefties.
As the Royals have stretched him out, we've begun to see some growing pains. Over the last month, Lynch has thrown 19 innings while allowing 13 runs and three home runs.
At this price and in a favorable matchup, I'll happily back Marte against a southpaw here.
Pick: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits (16%, Kalshi)
Rockies vs Yankees Player Prop
From an underlying metrics perspective, Tomoyuki Sugano is among the worst pitchers in MLB. Yet somehow, he has a winning record for the Rockies. Yup, you read that right.
It's only a matter of time before it all comes crashing down.
Or at least that's what I keep telling myself as Sugano continues to defy gravity.
The right-hander owns a 6.80 xERA, more than a run and a half higher than his actual ERA. He ranks in the bottom 2% of qualified pitchers in xBA (.312), average exit velocity (91.1 mph), strikeout rate (14%), and barrel rate allowed (12.3%).
Sugano has allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings, and that's a number that doesn't appear likely to improve anytime soon. Wednesday's matchup won't get any easier against a lefty-heavy Yankees lineup.
Opposing left-handed hitters own a 13.3% barrel rate against Sugano, with 25% of their hits leaving the ballpark. You could pick and plug just about any Yankees lefty into this spot, and I'd understand it. It's simply a matter of picking the right one.
I'm going to roll with Spencer Jones.
The 6-foot-7 rookie swings and misses plenty, but when he makes contact, the ball is often absolutely battered. Jones owns a 15.8% barrel rate this season, the second-best mark on the team and even higher than Ben Rice's.
Since being recalled from the minor leagues, Jones has looked increasingly comfortable. Over the last 30 days, he has hit .286 with an .856 OPS.
Look for him to continue crushing the baseball and take advantage of a soft-tossing Sugano tonight.
Pick: Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Home Runs
