Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Red Sox-Jays, Two Other Games
Andrew Benintendi. Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
- Pros are eyeing four bets in three games tonight.
- Wiseguys are buying low on a pair of short favorites.
- They're also getting down on a pair of unders.
Pro players were victimized by a pair of tough-luck losses on Tuesday. The Rangers (+107) came back from a late 3-0 deficit only to lose 4-3 in 12 innings.
Meanwhile, the Giants (+132) took a 1-0 lead into the top of the ninth, then gave up three runs to lose 3-1. Overall, it was a public Monday as favorites went 9-1, winning +5.08 units. Sharps will look for a big bounce back night tonight.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:07 p.m. and 7:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
- Sharp angle: Jays -105
- First pitch 7:07 p.m. ET
The Red Sox are on pace to win 113 games. Public players will ride them every game the rest of the way, but sharps will be looking to capitalize on the Sox being overvalued.
Boston just swept the Yankees and now begins a nine-game road trip in Toronto. The Sox are getting 73% of bets, but only 50% of dollars and they’ve fallen from -127 to -103, indicating smart money and sharp action on Toronto .
Pro players at Pinnacle and GT Bets got down hard on Jays +106 and +108, pushing Toronto from a dog to a favorite (+117 to -105). The Jays also fit the profitable Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+187.18 units since 2005).
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
- Sharp angle: Under 8 or 7.5
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic pros vs Joes discrepancy with this total. Currently 76% of bets are on the over but 63% of dollars are on the under . Meanwhile, the total opened at 8 and depending on the book, it’s either fallen to 7.5 or the 8 under is juiced up to -120, indicating heavy under liability.
Sharps at BetUS, Greek, SBG and Heritage all hit the under, signaling market consensus on a low-scoring game. Since 2005, the under has hit at a 52.7% clip and produced +70.55 units won when the game is played inside a dome or under a closed roof stadium.
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Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
- Sharp angle: Mets -109 and Under 8.5
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are hammering both the moneyline and the total in this one. The Mets are only getting 29% of bets but they’ve moved from -100 to -109, indicating sharp reverse line movement in their favor . This was caused by pros at Pinnacle steaming Mets -107.
Meanwhile, with Sal Romano (5.12 ERA) facing Jason Vargas (8.23 ERA), the public is hammering the over at a 79% clip. It opened at 8.5 and rose to 9. That’s when sharps hit the under 9 at SIA, Heritage, Greek and 5Dimes, causing it to fall back down to 8.5.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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