Rest can completely transform a starting pitcher's output, while structural changes in an opposing lineup can turn a soft matchup into a trap.
With Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle taking the mound on extra rest and Braves starter Grant Holmes facing a completely transformed Phillies lineup, I decided to focus this player props piece on them.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Sunday, September 13.
MLB Player Props Today
- Payton Tolle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (65¢, Kalshi)
- Grant Holmes Under 3.5 Strikeouts (53¢, Kalshi)
Royals vs Red Sox Player Prop
Numbers don’t lie, and those numbers show that Red Sox left-hander Payton Tolle is a vastly different pitcher when he has more than five days of rest.
Tolle has gone seven days between starts four times this year, including in his last outing when he struck out 12 against the Orioles. He also had starts against the A's and Orioles (again) where he tallied nine and seven strikeouts, respectively.
Diving deeper, Tolle ranks in the 95th percentile in chase rate, 70th in whiff rate, and 89th in strikeout rate. He also has stronger velocity with more rest, which bodes well for his performance in this outing against Kansas City.
Now, Tolle will have to find his lanes for strikeouts, as the Royals own an 18% strikeout rate since August 1st. The highest strikeout rate on the roster in that span is Tyler Tolbert at 25%, and five others punch out 20-23% of the time.
Tolle's strikeout line is 6.5, which is a fair line since he's posted 7+ strikeouts in four of his last eight outings. To me, the difference is the extra rest from Tolle, which should give him the extra zip on his four-seamer to keep Kansas City hitters off balance.
Pick: Payton Tolle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Play to 7.5; 65¢, Kalshi)
Phillies vs Braves Player Prop
Let's pivot to a pitcher I'm less bullish on: Braves hurler Grant Holmes.
Usually, if there's a regular starting pitcher who isn't a big strikeout pitcher, the 3.5 line is a pretty common number. A non-strikeout pitcher perfectly describes Holmes, whose 7.19 K/9 is fairly unimpressive.
In Holmes' last outing, he sat down six Phillies hitters via strikeout. That was uncharacteristic for the Phillies, who have gone from a middling team in strikeout rate to a 17.6% strikeout rate since August 1st. Hmm, it's almost like Philadelphia hauled in the best bat-to-ball hitter in the league during that time.
Before that outing, Holmes was on a five-game start run with three or fewer strikeouts. I expect the Phillies to put up a strong performance against Holmes, who has a 3.46 ERA with a 4.73 xERA and 4.60 FIP. He also hasn't pitched more than six innings in any start this year.
I think he'll go about five innings in this outing since the Phillies should crush him — and if he records 15 outs, then he'd need a 26.7% strikeout rate in the game to get four strikeouts, when his season average is 18%. Things change if he goes more than five innings, but Philadelphia can rack up his pitch count with its strong 10% walk rate and minuscule strikeout rate.
Pick: Grant Holmes Under 3.5 strikeouts (Play to -120; 53¢, Kalshi)
