Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, September 13.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- James Wood 2+ TB (+110, bet365)
- James Wood 2+ HRR (-150, bet365)
- James Wood 1+ Home Run (+320, bet365)
- Braves -1.5 (+155, DraftKings)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 HRR (-138, DraftKings)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, DraftKings)
- Royals vs Red Sox – NRFI (-138, FanDuel)
- Royals vs Red Sox – F5 Under 3.5 Runs (+114, FanDuel)
Angels vs Nationals Pick
In this matchup between the Angels and Nationals, I like targeting the Nationals' player prop markets, largely due to the pitching struggles of Angels' hurler Grayson Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has a 6.28 ERA on the season, with an inefficient 1.57 WHIP. Along with that, in just 81.2 innings, Rodriguez has surrendered a whopping 57 earned runs and 91 hits.
The Angels’ righty has struggled with command all year long, frequently falling behind in counts, thus needing to throw strikes in the zone to retire opposing hitters.
Given those struggles, I can see Nationals slugger James Wood having a massive day.
Wood is having a breakout statistical year, establishing himself as one of baseball's premier power hitters and boasting a third-best .919 OPS.
As a big lefty with supreme raw power, Wood already holds a definitive platoon advantage over Rodriguez.
Also, Rodriguez has historically struggled versus left-handers who can neutralize his sweeping break and lay off his low-and-away changeup.
Wood’s elite on-base metrics and massive power upside line up perfectly against a pitcher currently struggling with pitch command and general baseline efficiency.
I expect Rodriguez’s increased 1.55 home run-rate and incredibly high four-seam fastball usage (53.1% USG per BARTOLO) to leave him very vulnerable versus a lefty slugger of Wood’s caliber.
Picks:
- James Wood 2+ TB (+110, bet365)
- James Wood 2+ HRR (-150, bet365)
- James Wood 1+ Home Run (+320, bet365)
Phillies vs Braves Pick
Rookie pitcher Andrew Painter will take the mound for the Phillies, looking to bounce back from what has been a rough season, while Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves.
Painter has recorded a whopping 5.71 ERA throughout his 110.1 innings, and I expect his struggles to continue as he prepares to face a scorching-hot Braves lineup on Sunday afternoon.
In six previous at-bats against Painter, Braves’ superstar OF Ronald Acuña Jr. is 2-for-6, with one of those hits being a two-run homer.
Painter’s greatest weapon is his high-octane four-seam fastball, which he heavily relies on to retire opposing hitters, throwing his heater at 32% USG per BARTOLO.
Despite Painter throwing the four-seamer at such a high clip, opposing hitters are generating a .400 xwOBA.
Also, though the young righty is praised for his punchout prowess, Painter’s four-seamer has generated both a relatively low whiff rate (15 WHF%) and strikeout rate (11 K%).
Acuña has historically been one of the premier fastball hitters, using his explosive wrist action to turn around high-velocity offerings.
He also boasts elite plate discipline, evident through his .345 OBP on the season, and will gladly take a walk if Painter is missing his spots.
The Phillies’ right-hander has frequently fallen behind in counts all year long, resulting in his having to throw strikes in the zone, which could definitely prove fatal against a power-hitter like Acuña.
Picks:
- Braves -1.5 (+155, DraftKings)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 HRR (-138, DraftKings)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, DraftKings)
Royals vs Red Sox Pick
Royals' lefty Noah Cameron will get the start while youngster Payton Tolle will start for the Red Sox.
In 24 outings this season, Tolle has been excellent, recording an impressive 3.15 ERA along with a remarkably efficient 1.08 WHIP.
Like Tolle, Cameron enters Sunday’s contest in elite form, having recorded a quality start in six of his last nine appearances.
Though the Red Sox lineup has been arguably the hottest in baseball since the All-Star break, Boston has several left-handed hitters, which should give the Royals’ veteran somewhat of a platoon edge on Sunday.
Given how impressive both starters have been over the last couple of months, I think this is a great spot for no runs to be scored in the first inning.
Secondly, I will be looking to target the first five total to go under 4.5 in a matchup where runs are expected to come at a premium with two scorching starting pitchers.
Picks:
- NRFI (-138, FanDuel)
- F5 Under 3.5 Runs (+114, FanDuel)
