MLB Odds & Picks for Blue Jays vs. White Sox: Dylan Cease Will Have Problems With Toronto’s Offense
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- The Blue Jays are short road favorites tonight against the White Sox.
- Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound against Chicago's Dylan Cease in a battle of ace-level starting pitchers.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-136|
|White Sox Odds||+115|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The White Sox and Blue Jays will get reacquainted Tuesday after Chicago win a thrilling 8-7 series opener Monday at Guaranteed Rate Field.
A similarly high-scoring affair may be unlikely Tuesday however, as Chicago will send Dylan Cease on the mound to battle with Kevin Gausman. Cease has pitched to a 2.91 ERA in 68 innings, while Gausman has pitched to a 3.21 ERA in 73 innings.
Will Gausman and Cease keep these two high-powered offences in check Tuesday?
Blue Jays Offense Starting to Click
As Toronto’s top bats heading in to the season have begun to click into a higher-gear over the last month, this offense has started to look as formidable as expected.
Over the last month, the Blue Jays have been the most productive offensive team in the league, batting to a 136 wRC+ and a .362 wOBA.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has found the form many expected, and over the last 14 days he has put seven balls in play with exit velocities that exceeded 110 mph.
Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have both dominated themselves of late, and the Blue Jays’ lineup is offering 6-7 really tough outs on any given night.
The Blue Jays were the second-most productive team in the league last season versus right-handed pitching, and even after a slow start to the year are now sitting with nearly identical splits to what we saw in 2021.
Their process at the plate has improved tremendously throughout the last 30 days, as evidenced by a second-best 0.49 BB/K rate, and that could prove an important narrative against Cease, whose greatest concern has been issuing too many free passes.
Gausman was humiliated in a season-worst performance versus the Orioles last time out, allowing five earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings.
Gausman’s spin rates were lower than average in that start as he seemed to have trouble with the quality of the baseballs. But whether that was a convenient excuse or not, it was very clear something was up compared to what we have seen throughout his 2022 campaign.
Even still, Gausman’s 3.40 xERA comes with steady underlying numbers, and his increased usage of a nasty splitter this season has generated a ton of swings and misses.
Gausman has pitched to a strong QOPA of 4.74, and he is among the top of the league in qualified starters with regards to chase rate.
It will be interesting to see how Gausman’s stuff is looking early on in this contest, but personally I believe a bounce-back in this game to be much more likely than a similarly dreadful outing as we saw last time out based upon the wider sample of dominance seen this season.
Which Cease Will White Sox Get?
With Tim Anderson back in the lineup and some strong underlying metrics in a lot of areas, I do believe that Chicago’s offense will start to show out closer to what we saw last year.
However Chicago hit left-handed pitching far more effectively than righties in 2021, and that narrative has held true near the mid-way mark of this 2022 campaign.
The White Sox hold dismal results vs right-handed pitching in 2022, with a 89 wRC+ and a .290 wOBA.
The Sox will find better offensive results as they get healthy and as improved results come from some roster pieces who simply are better than we have seen early on, but it has been quite a struggle vs righties in the early going.
Cease been dominant so far in this 2022 season, and enters this one in the midst of a spectacular stretch, allowing no earned runs in his last 21 1/3 innings.
He has pitched to a WHIP of 1.35 over that time, however, and it does seem obvious to say he’s due to allow some earned runs again soon based upon that number.
Blue Jays-White Sox Pick
Toronto’s offense should matchup well with Cease, even as spectacular as he has been in the early going of this season, while Gausman could prove a very difficult challenge for the White Sox.
If Toronto can get some runs off Cease early and get to the less dominant arms in the Chicago bullpen, it could certainly manage a reasonable offensive output, which could go a long way with Gausman on the mound.
More of this pick for me centers around my belief that Gausman will bounce back than that the Jays should post a big number from Cease, and while a total of 8.5 does look about fair, I do see an edge with the Jays here.
I believe Chicago are likely to trend upwards significantly moving forward, but in this spot I see value backing the road favorite in the Jays at -130, and I would play them down to -135.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -130 (Play to -135)
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