The Chicago Cubs (57-39) will host the Boston Red Sox (53-45) in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MARQ.
No team was more disappointed to see the All-Star break come than Boston. They entered the break on a heater, rattling off 10-straight wins and moving into a Wild Card position just three games back of the AL East division lead.
The Red Sox will look to pick up where they left off against a Cubs team that has been getting it done all season. Chicago has the third-most wins in baseball and the best run differential in the league.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Cubs predictions for Friday, July 18, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction
- Red Sox vs Cubs picks: Red Sox Moneyline (+114 | Play to +105)
My Red Sox vs Cubs best bet is on Boston moneyline, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Cubs Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +114 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -138 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Colin Rea (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 7-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.36 / 4.73 | ERA / xERA | 3.91 / 4.95 |
| 3.62 / 3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78 / 4.47 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 14.6 | K-BB% | 11.0 |
| 37.0 | GB% | 35.9 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 102 | Location+ | 100 |
Mike Ianniello’s Red Sox vs Cubs Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Giolito and Company on a Roll
It took about a month for Lucas Giolito to settle into things in Boston after returning from a long injury.
Giolito signed in Boston and then promptly missed the entire 2024 season with elbow surgery. He made his Red Sox debut at the end of April, and things did not go well. He had a 7.08 ERA after his first four starts, but has really dialed it in since.
Over his last six starts, Giolito is 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA. His velocity has returned to the pre-injury level, and he has struck out 37 batters in the last 38 innings.
He has gone at least six innings in each outing and has allowed more than one run just once since June 5. He became the first Red Sox pitcher to toss at least six innings with two or fewer runs allowed in six straight starts since David Price in 2018.
Giolito is not the only one who has turned a corner. Since the start of July, the Red Sox have the best team OPS and wOBA in the league and are tied for the most runs scored. They have the fewest strikeouts in the league during their 10-game winning streak.
The recent surge has been a combination of baseball’s No. 1 prospect, Roman Anthony, and fellow rookie Ceddanne Rafaela both catching fire, but also veteran Trevor Story seemingly turning back the clock.
Anthony is hitting .341 in July, and Story and Rafaela both have an OPS over 1.000 this month.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Breakout Season for Rea
Colin Rea has been enjoying a breakout season, the best of his career. The 35-year-old went 7-3 in the first half with a 3.91 ERA.
He doesn’t issue walks and has done a much better job at limiting hard contact than in recent years. His xERA is more than full run higher, so negative regression could be coming, but for now, it has been a great start to the year.
What has been the main cause of his improvement?
It sounds obvious, but he has simply thrown his better pitches more and his worse pitches less often. His two best pitches last season were his fastball and his slider, which he threw the second and fourth-most often.
Those have now become his two most frequently used pitches this season. His four-seam usage has gone from 19.5% last year to 44.5% this season. He has basically eliminated his sinker and cutter, which both got shelled last year.
Offensively, the Cubs don’t need to change anything. This offense is deep from top to bottom and has been mashing the ball. They have scored the second most runs and rank in the top five in home runs, stolen bases, and team OPS.
The breakout offensively for Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the story of the first half. He has 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases at the break, the only player with at least 20 of each.
PCA has not done it alone, though. Kyle Tucker continues to be the least-talked-about superstar in the game, Seiya Suzuki is top five in the league in RBI, and Michael Busch leads all first basemen in OPS.
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
While there is a chance that the All-Star break killed the Red Sox's momentum, I’m betting they keep things rolling here. For a young group, playing with confidence is everything, and that team has it right now.
Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela are both crushing the ball in July, and Jarren Duran is starting to pick things up. Plus, Boston just got back Alex Bregman, who was the team’s best player prior to getting injured.
They also have arguably the hottest pitcher on the mound as of late. Giolito has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight starts, a 0.70 ERA over that stretch. He has allowed one earned run in his last 21 innings.
Rea has been solid for the Cubs this season, but he has a 4.95 xERA, more than a full run higher than his current ERA. He has traditionally been a mid-4s ERA type of pitcher his whole career and should slide back towards those marks in the second half of the season.
If it wasn’t for the All-Star break, this would be the hottest team in the league and arguably the hottest pitcher in the league. I’ll bet on the time off now slowing them down and back the Red Sox to keep the momentum going coming out of the break.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+114 | Play to +105)
Moneyline
Back the Red Sox on the moneyline Friday afternoon.
Run Line (Spread)
I will pass on this one.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total for this game.
