The Miami Marlins host the Boston Red Sox on August 24, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Red Sox are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction
- Red Sox vs Marlins Pick: Marlins F5 ML (+112 | Play to +102)
My Red Sox vs Marlins best bet is on Miami to lead after five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Marlins Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7 -118o / -102u | -130 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7 -118o / -102u | +105 |
- Red Sox vs Marlins moneyline: Red Sox -130, Marlins +105
- Red Sox vs Marlins over/under: 7 (-118o / -102u)
- Red Sox vs Marlins spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+135), Marlins +1.5 (-165)
Red Sox vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Ranger Suarez (LHP, BOS) | Stat | Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 13-8 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 3.41 / 3.61 | ERA / xERA | 3.46 / 3.66 |
| 2.87 / 3.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.84 / 4.21 |
| 17.1 | K-BB% | 11.5 |
| 39.9 | GB% | 42.9 |
| .303 | BABIP | .272 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 107 | Location+ | 103 |
Red Sox vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
I like the Marlins to win the first five innings today. I see value for the full game, but it's a bigger edge for the first five innings.
I make the F5 line about -105. I took +112 last night, and I like that down to about +102.
Red Sox SP Ranger Suarez is obviously a bit more of a soft-tosser than Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara. Sandy gives himself a higher floor with the bigger velocity and keeps the ball on the ground.
Both have similar underlying metrics, especially of late, and have seen their strikeout-minus-walk rate dip below the Major League average. These starters have seen their expected FIP and SIERA come into the fours, as opposed to the high threes where most of their metrics sit for the season.
Suarez has the better line across the board, but both of them have about a 3.6 expected ERA. I essentially rank them right around one another, as I see them in terms of effectiveness. The model has them about 30 spots apart in the rankings, but the main reason for the F5 play, as opposed to the full game, is the bullpen differential.
The Red Sox have a top-five bullpen, while the Marlins are closer to the bottom 10. I believe they also have a couple of guys marked as out for today, while the Red Sox have a fully rested and ready-to-go bullpen, too.
Since Suarez came off the IL, Boston hasn't let him go more than 5 1/3 innings. That was his last start. He did ramp up from 70 to 93 pitches, but I don't think they're going to give him a particularly long leash, especially considering it looks like they're becoming a more and more certain playoff team by the day.
I would expect the Red Sox bullpen to be ready to go in the fifth inning if Suarez's pitch count gets up there today.
Red Sox vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
I think the Marlins always look for a bit more length from Alcantara, which is why you tend to see him get hit in those sixth and seventh innings because they just try to get a little bit more out of him.
If you count starts where he went 5 2/3 innings, he hasn't done less than that since May 5. There were two starts in the past three months where he didn't make six innings, and he went 5 2/3 IP in both.
I just make the Marlins slight favorites for the first five, so I would take them to about +102. If you like the full game line, you could take them to around +115.
That's my pick: Marlins F5 moneyline against the red-hot Red Sox — hopefully not for the first half of today's game.
Pick: Marlins F5 Moneyline (+112 | Play to +102)
