Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Friday’s Favorite
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich and Tyrone Taylor
- The Brewers are road favorites tonight in the second game of their series against the Cardinals.
- Brandon Woodruff takes the mound for Milwaukee, opposed by Dakota Hudson of St. Louis.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Brewers and Cardinals will play the second game of their four-game series on Friday night.
On Thursday, Milwaukee won the series opener to extend its winning streak to three games. This season, teams on a three-game winning streak have done particularly well on the final weekday. Moreover, road favorites have also done well in this spot when heading into the weekend.
We’ll examine the numbers and explore why the signs point to the Brewers as the right side in this matchup.
Brewers Should See Better Woodruff
Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Milwaukee in what’s been a somewhat up-and-down season for the right-hander. While he’s 5-2 in eight starts, his 4.76 ERA is the highest since his rookie year in 2017.
Woodruff’s high ERA is a function of three starts in which he pitched poorly. He allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his first start. He then allowed four runs in four innings in his fourth start, followed by five runs in 4 1/3 innings in his sixth start.
Outside of those performances, Woodruff has pitched pretty well as he has two starts where he departed with a shutout and four starts where he allowed just one run.
After finishing with a 3.31 SIERA last season, his advanced numbers suggest he’s heading in the right direction, given his 3.22 xFIP and 3.51 xERA. Thus, I see no reason to be overly concerned. After all, Woodruff has been a reliable pitcher for bettors as the Brewers are 52-33 for 6.22 units in his starts.
Hudson A Concern For Cardinals
St. Louis will hand the ball to Dakota Hudson for his ninth start of the year. Hudson is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 40 innings.
While those numbers appear decent on the surface, his advanced stats tell a much different story. Per FanGraphs, Hudson is carrying a 4.78 xFIP and a 5.41 xERA. His 4.28 walks per nine innings are also an issue. Moreover, he’s only striking out 4.95 batters per nine innings, which is a career-low.
With a fastball averaging around 92 mph, Hudson is unlikely to overpower hitters. That’s why he uses more of a sinker-grip to try to pitch down in the strike zone. Yet, while his 2.06 GB/FB ratio is impressive, opposing hitters have a .352 xBA and .450 xWOBA against the sinker.
Hudson throws his sinker 42.6% of the time. His pitch arsenal also includes a cutter (26.7%), slider (12.1%), four-seamer (11.9%) and a changeup (6.7%). If we focus on how the Brewers have fared against his four dominant pitches this season, Milwaukee has an above-average value of 13.5 runs.
That’s a worrying sign, especially when you consider that the Brewers’ lineup has a .298/.393/.452 line against Hudson in 39 at-bats.
One strategy I like to deploy is to target teams once they put together a credible winning streak of three games. That strategy has worked out well this season as teams in this spot are 39-28 for 6.44 units.
After factoring in the bullpen matchups and any possible regression, my model has a significant edge on the Brewers in this contest.
However, there is an angle we should also consider, which is backing road favorites on a Friday this season. Our ActionLabs database shows that teams in this spot are 24-6 for 10.7 units, and this trend is currently on a 4-0 run.
After shopping around, I found that FanDuel now has the best price, with the Brewers at -144. I’ll risk a half-unit of my bankroll on the visitors, and I’d try to grab them at -155 or better.
Pick: Half-unit on Brewers ML (-144)