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MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Giants: Why San Francisco Holds Edge at Home

MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Giants: Why San Francisco Holds Edge at Home article feature image
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Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Cobb (Giants)

  • The Brewers go head-to-head with the Giants in San Francisco on Saturday evening.
  • Eric Lauer could begin to regress based on his numbers, while Alex Cobb could find better results starting in this game.
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.

Brewers vs. Giants Odds

Brewers Odds +110
Giants Odds -130
Over/Under 8
Time 7:15 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Mike Yastrzemski’s ninth-inning grand slam handed the Giants a series-tying 8-5 win in dramatic walk-off fashion on Friday.

San Francisco will look to follow up Friday’s late push and offer some strong run support for Alex Cobb, who has managed an inflated 4.57 ERA with a 3-4 record this season.

Cobb will be opposed by Eric Lauer, who has a 3.83 ERA in 89.1 innings this season.

Are the Giants a worthy favorite with Cobb on the mound?

Brewers’ Lauer Set To Regress

Contrary to his opponent on Saturday (Cobb), Lauer features a number of below average metrics this season. His 4.28 xERA suggests he’s due for some worse luck moving forward.

Lauer has thrown to a QOPA of just 4.30, and has also found far less success on the road, as evidenced by a 5.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

Offensively, the Brewers have been steady against right-handed pitching this season, with a 106 wRC+ and a .310 wOBA.

Cobb Eyeing Better Results

Yastrzemski’s ninth-inning grand slam capped off what was another steady night at the plate for the Giants.

They’ve been very steady offensively over the last 30 days, as they’ve had a 12th-best 107 xRC+ during that time, including a slug rate of .404. They also have been finding a surprising amount of offense at the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park.

San Francisco has crushed left-handed pitching this season, with a third-best wRC+ of 120 and a wOBA of .336.

Cobb has been one of the league’s most unlucky pitchers throughout this 2022 campaign, and he features strong underlying metrics all across the board, including a 2.85 xERA.

Cobb’s stuff has been really sharp, and altogether he’s managed a stellar QOPA of 5.02 throughout the 2022 campaign.

Cobb has allowed a notably high BABIP of .339, yet his XBA sits at just .234.

Eventually, the combination of a strong K/BB ratio and soft contact is going to lead to better results.

And those results certainly could come on Saturday against the Brewers.

Brewers-Giants Pick

San Francisco has been significantly more effective against left-handed pitching this season, and its lineup is likely to generate some early runs off of Lauer, who hasn’t been as strong as his surface level numbers suggest.

It’s been widely covered that Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. Be it untimely defensive errors extending innings, or soft contact getting down at all the most crucial times, things just haven’t gone Cobb’s way this season.

At some point, better results are bound to follow for Cobb, who has been far sharper than his higher than average ERA suggests.

In turn, San Francisco quietly has a notable starting pitching advantage here, and taking that into account — alongside its splits versus left-handed pitching — I believe there’s value backing San Francisco to win the first 5 innings at -105 (-0.5 line).

I would play that down to a number of -115.

Pick: San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings -0.5 (-105)

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