MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Brewers vs. Padres: Target Total in West Coast Matinee (Wednesday, May 25)
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish.
- The Padres are betting favorites ahead of Wednesday's rubber game against the Brewers.
- Aaron Ashby will start for Milwaukee opposite Yu Darvish, who threw seven scoreless innings in his last start.
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (+105 / -125)|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Milwaukee Brewers bounced back on the back of reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on Tuesday night, evening the series with the San Diego Padres at one apiece.
The Padres will turn to Yu Darvish in the series finale, while Aaron Ashby rejoins the Milwaukee rotation for the series finale.
Can the Padres take home the series at Petco Park behind Darvish, or will the Brewers play spoiler for the second straight night?
Ashby’s Stuff Isn’t a Concern
Ashby will likely remain until Freddy Peralta (shoulder) returns from the injured list. The left-hander’s biggest issue is his control, as he ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB in walk rate (5.4 per nine innings), and it’s come back to bite him on multiple occasions.
When he’s locating well, though, Ashby is tough to hit. He ranks in the top 12 percent in hard-hit rate and xSLG. Opponents have just a .211 xBA against the southpaw, who has a 3.13 xERA over 28 1/3 innings.
Even when he was coming out of the bullpen, Ashby threw multiple innings out of long relief, although he’s pitched more than four innings just once this season. It’s likely the Brewers bullpen will play an important role in this game. That unit ranks 12th in bullpen ERA and is tied for the fewest home runs allowed.
However, closer Josh Hader is currently on the bereavement list and without a timetable for return. Also, both Trevor Gott and Devin Williams have thrown on back-to-back days, which means they’re likely unavailable on Wednesday.
Darvish Strives for Consistency Following Gem
Darvish takes the mound fresh off a seven-inning shutout of the Phillies a week ago, but the 35-year-old has been quite inconsistent this season.
Darvish ranks right around league average in xERA (3.76), hard-hit rate and xwOBA. His underlying metrics does show potential for positive regression, with his FIP (3.48) sitting a half-run lower than his ERA (3.91). He is also walking fewer batters and giving up fewer home runs than last season.
At the same time, Darvish’s strikeout rate has dropped 10% and his xBA (.253) currently stands as his career-worst despite letting up less barrels in 2022.
Much of Darvish’s success comes down to his cutter, which has a .340 batting average against thus far. If his primary pitch is working, Darvish’s deep arsenal can shut down the opposition on any given night, as it has against the likes of the Dodgers or aforementioned Phillies.
Darvish has also been extremely effective at home, where he has a 1.37 ERA over three starts. On the road, he’s been roughed up to the tune of a 5.81 ERA.
While I do lean toward the Brewers taking home this series finale, I think there’s more value on the first five total in this matchup.
Darvish has been inconsistent at times this season, but he’s got a proven track record at Petco Park. He doesn’t get himself into trouble with location issues, and I expect him to limit the Milwaukee bats in the early going.
Tack on Ashby’s effectiveness to limit hard contact and his near 30% strikeout rate, and I think he should turn in another solid outing as he rejoins the Brewers rotation.
Even if Ashby doesn’t go the full five innings, the Milwaukee bullpen should finish the job. I don’t trust the full game under because of the Brewers bullpen potentially being shorthanded, but I do see value in the first five innings.
We’ll back pitching to reign supreme once again in the first half of Wednesday evening’s series finale as the bats once again remain quiet.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4 (to -120)