Cardinals vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target This Nolan Arenado Prop Bet (Wednesday, August 10)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals standout Nolan Arenado.
- The Rockies host the Cardinals in Wednesday's MLB showdown at Coors Field.
- Colorado, which is a slight underdog against St. Louis, snapped its foes seven-game winning streak in Tuesday's meeting.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the game below and details why he has found betting value on a player prop wager.
Cardinals vs. Rockies Odds
| Cardinals Odds | -155 |
| Rockies Odds | +125 |
| Over/Under | 12.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Rockies snapped the Cardinals’ seven-game winning streak in shocking fashion in Tuesday's series opener, led by a massive five-hit performance from Randal Grichuk.
Now, St. Louis will hand the ball to deadline acquisition Jose Quintana, who made an excellent debut last Thursday when he allowed just one earned in six innings.
Colorado will look to build on its big win with Kyle Freeland. He has pitched to 5.55 ERA through 61 2/3 innings at Coors Field this season.
So, can St. Louis bounce back with a win in this latest contest? Let’s see where we can find some betting value.
St. Louis Cardinals
Scoring five runs from eight hits at Coors Field could arguably be somewhat of a down game for the Cardinals’ red-hot offense, especially when it comes in an embarrassing 16-5 blowout.
Over the last 30 days, the St. Louis has owned the second most productive offense in baseball, with a wRC+ of 130 and a woba of .350 in the process.
In particular, the Cardinals have been potent against left-handed pitching, with a second-best wRC+ of 119 in baseball and K-rate of just 19.5 percent.
A large part of that success has been the duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who have hit effectively versus left-handed pitchers.
Goldschmidt owns a ridiculous 1.394 OPS with an .847 SLG rate, while Arenado sits with a .984 OPS and .646 SLG rate.
Freeland has thrown a ton of non-fastballs, which could be a problem entering a matchup against Goldschmidt, who has batted to a .335 average on non-fastballs this season.
Colorado Rockies
As you would expect, Freeland has been far less effective pitching at Coors Field, racking up a subpar 5.55 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season.
A 17.0% strikeout rate certainly is a big part of the concern, especially at Coors.
In particular, a strike rate of just 61% to right-handed batters is the second-worst mark among qualified starters in baseball. That could be problematic looking toward matchups against Goldschmidt and Arenado.
Freeland features low spin rates and has pitched to a QOPA of just 4.10 this season.
Cardinals-Rockies Pick
St. Louis didn’t exactly take full advantage of a favorable matchup at the plate, but it seems reasonable to think it can bounce back with a better performance against Freeland looking at a number of the splits working in its favor.
Goldschmidt and Arenado have put up elite splits against left-handed pitching. That said, it seems likely the pair could do damage here and will surely be trendy targets for prop bettors.
A number of options make sense for the two, but with how this lineup should get into scoring position for Arenado, I see value looking toward his RBI total.
Pick: Nolan Arenado — Over 0.5 RBIs (-145 | Play to -150)
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