The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on May 1, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Pirates are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by +159 on the run line (-175). The Reds are +113 on the moneyline and -193 on the run line (+1.5). The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
- Reds vs Pirates Pick: Oneil Cruz 1+ Hit (-230), Nathaniel Lowe 1+ Hit (-186)
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is a parlay combining Oneil Cruz and Nathaniel Lowe to record one or more hits in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -193 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +113 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +159 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -136 |
- Reds vs Pirates moneyline: Reds +113, Pirates -136
- Reds vs Pirates over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -118u)
- Reds vs Pirates spread: Reds +1.5 (-193), Pirates -1.5 (+159)
Reds vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| RHP Brady Singer (CIN) | Stat | RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.97 / 5.34 | ERA / xERA | 3.18 / 3.84 |
| 5.00 / 4.58 | FIP / xFIP | 3.10 / 4.19 |
| 9.0 | K-BB% | 10.2 |
| 39.6 | GB% | 38.4 |
| .347 | BABIP | .273 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 99 | Location+ | 104 |
Reds vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Cincinnati Reds
The NL Central has seen plenty of Mitch Keller over the last five years. Keller ranks ninth in all of baseball in innings pitched since 2022. The Reds have specifically seen him 16 times, and they've put a hurting on him, posting a 5.38 ERA over 80.1 innings.
Of course, we aren't going to bet on the Reds because of 80 innings that featured many hitters who are no longer on the team, but we want to bet on some runs to be scored in this game for other reasons.
Keller's 3.18 ERA looks pretty good, and it's backed up by a 1.15 WHIP. The guy has been great for the Pirates this year. Under the hood, things are ugly. His SIERA is way up there at 4.49. His strikeout rate is at a career low 18.2%. He gets a whiff on just 10.2% of his pitches, and he gets hit in the air a good bit with just a 39% ground balls.
Fortunately for Keller, he's given up just one home run this year despite all of that, but it can't continue like this. If Keller doesn't start getting more strikeouts, that ERA is going north in a hurry.
So we would like to bet on some hits coming from the Cincy lineup? But who?
The lefties are favored. Keller has a 17.6% K% with a .364 xwOBA allowed to lefties in these last two seasons. He's mostly survived damage this year, but not because he's generating soft contact.
Check out his xwOBAs against lefties by pitch type. FF = .347, CH = .350, SI = .542.Those three pitches account for 60% of his usage against lefties. He's extremely hittable when he doesn't have the platoon advantage.
The lefties to focus on: TJ Friedl, Elly De La Cruz, Nathaniel Lowe, JJ Bleday
Speaking of Nathaniel Lowe, that guy has found a bit of a career resurgence with this new team. He's slashing .288/.373/.654 in 59 games with five dingers and a 13.6% K%. That strikeout rate is half of what it was last year.
Add on his 13.6% Brl%, and you have a hitter doing things you rarely see. There are only 11 hitters in baseball right now with a Brl% above 12% and a K% below 15%, and Lowe is one of them.
He's the guy we're targeting tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are on a five-game losing streak. However, they're still in the middle of the pack offensively with a team .710 OPS. Against righties in particular, they have a handful of bats that can do some things.
So it's not the pushover lineup it's been in the past. And I'm doubting that Brady Singer can excel here. Only nine pitchers with 5+ starts this year have a lower strikeout rate than Singer's 14.2%. He doesn't walk guys (5.2% BB% this year, 8.4% BB% last year), and that's good for him, but it's also good for us in that it makes hits props more likely to hit since we aren't wasting PAs with walks.
Singer's fastball comes in at 91 mph, and it's been absolutely destroyed this year with a .590 xwOBA. His slider has been a lot better, but it's far from an elite pitch with a 11.9% SwStr% and a high 38% Ball%. You can pretty much just sit fastball on Singer and go to town when you get one.
Oneil Cruz might not be the best Pirates hitter as a whole, but he's certainly the most electrifying. I was curious about how he does against different levels of pitcher strikeout rate. So I checked, going back to 2023. I defined a 26% K% or higher from a pitcher as "high", anything below 20% "low", and everything else as "medium".
Here's how Cruz has done against these three classifications of pitchers (based on that pitcher's strikeout ability):
- Oneil Cruz vs. High K Pitchers (306 PA): 39.2% K%, 17.8% Brl%, 4.9% HR%, .316 xwOBA
- Oneil Cruz vs. Mid K Pitchers (545 PA): 30.6% K%, 16.3% Brl%, 2.9% HR%, .323 xwOBA
- Oneil Cruz vs. Low K Pitchers (416 PA): 27.4% K%, 18.0% Brl%, 4.6% HR%, .380 xwOBA
Pretty big sample sizes in all three. The strikeout rate makes perfect sense. It drops as the pitcher's K% drops. The barrel rates don't really change, which makes sense, because the barrel rate is only measured on balls in play, so the strikeouts are taken out of the picture entirely.
The big one to see is the .380 xwOBA against low strikeout pitchers. He's getting more balls in play against them, which does boost that number immediately, but this is a large difference. A .380 xwOBA is elite.
Reds vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
I like the over 8.5 in this one. Both of these offenses are competent, and both of these pitchers are very susceptible to giving up runs in bunches. However, taking a side or total seems like the easy way out to me in these articles. Let's make it more fun.
The two players we've highlighted are Nathaniel Lowe and Oneil Cruz. Two lefties in particularly good spots. My safe recommendation if you're more of an even-money bettor:
Pick: Oneil Cruz 1+ Hit (-230), Nathaniel Lowe 1+ Hit (-186)
Parlay Odds: +118 (DraftKings)
But if you want a more lottery-style approach, go with this one. Good luck out there!
Pick: Oneil Cruz 4+ Total Bases (+258), Nathaniel Lowe 4+ Total Bases (+533)
Parlay Odds: +2200 (DraftKings)
