Zerillo’s CPBL Betting Odds & Picks: Fubon Guardians vs. Rakuten Monkeys, Uni-President Lions vs. Chinatrust Brothers (April 19)
Photo by Gene Wang/Getty Images. Pictured: Rakuten Monkeys had a 15-3 win over Uni-President Lions during the CPBL game between Rakuten Monkeys and Uni-President Lions at Taoyuan International Baseball Stadium on April 16, 2020
The CPBL, the only professional baseball league currently playing games, is back in action on Sunday with two games at 5:35 a.m. ET.
The Rakuten Monkeys (4-0) will host the Fubon Guardians (2-2), and the Uni-President Lions (1-4) will visit the Chinatrust Brothers (2-3).
For more information about the CPBL, check out my opening day betting guide.
Below, you can find the listed odds for each game, alongside my projections, analysis and bets for Sunday.
Fubon Guardians vs. Rakuten Monkeys Betting Odds
Guardians odds: -190
Monkeys odds: +150
First pitch: 5:35 a.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Henry Sosa (Fubon) vs. Weng Wei-Chun (Rakuten)
Henry Sosa, arguably the CPBL’s most effective pitcher, will take the mound for his second start of the season on Sunday following a 3-1 win against the Brothers last Tuesday.
In that start, Sosa allowed four hits, one walk and one run over seven innings, with five strikeouts, on the heels of a 2019 campaign where he pitched to a 2.92 FIP and 2.32 DIPS ERA.
He played only one season in the major leagues, making 10 inefficient starts for the Houston Astros back in 2011, but pitched more than eight seasons in the KBO (4.28 ERA) before arriving in the CPBL last season, where he thrived.
Sosa’s arsenal consists of a fastball (94 mph), slider (81 mph) and changeup (85 mph) and he’s keen on throwing high fastballs:
Sosa made three starts against the Monkeys in 2019 and permitted a 3.32 ERA, easily his highest mark amongst his three CPBL opponents.
That said, he’s a deserving favorite against this potent Rakuten offense, and I don’t see much value on either side of the moneyline or the total.
His opponent is Weng Wei-Chun, Rakuten’s 2019 first-round pick, who finished with a 6.13 FIP and 5.31 DIPS ERA in his rookie season.
Relative to Sosa, the 21-year-old pitcher is a soft tosser who lives in the bottom half of the zone, but he does appear to have some good depth on his changeup and solid shape to his breaking balls.
#Lamigo Monkeys' 2018 1st round draft pick 翁瑋均 (Weng Wei-Chun) allowed 1 earned run over 8 innings against the Brothers last night. After 5 starts, Weng posted a solid 2.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 136 ERA+. #CPBL pic.twitter.com/xdEu9KhamI
— CPBL STATS (@GOCPBL) May 13, 2019
The betting market looks to have this one measured correctly.
Uni-President Lions vs. Chinatrust Brothers Betting Odds
Lions odds: +180
Brothers odds: -230
First pitch: 5:35 a.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Shih Tzu-Chien (Uni) vs. Jose de Paula (Chinatrust)
After riding the Chinatrust Brothers’ bandwagon for a few days, we’re finally going to jump off here and take the other side.
The Lions have been playing poorly, and have struggled to score against foreign pitchers, but the Brothers are being overvalued in this contest.
Their starter, Jose de Paula, was solid in his season debut (7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K), and he has prior success in foreign professional baseball, carrying a 3.66 ERA across 349 innings pitched.
The southpaw offers solid velocity with a sharp, swing over the top type of breaking ball:
His opponent, Shih Tzu-Chien, posted a 5.98 FIP and 5.08 DIPS ERA in 2019, but can also fire off some good breaking balls of his own right:
— CPBL STATS (@GOCPBL) May 4, 2019
I show the Uni-Lions as +151 (implied 39.9%) underdogs on Sunday, and I bet a half-unit on them at +195 (implied 33.9%), a 6% edge.
I would play that number down to +170, a 3% edge.
I projected the total at 11.7, and bet a half-unit on Over 8.5 (-110), at a 13% edge, and would continue to play that up to Over 9 (-115), a 9.3% edge.
CPBL Bets for April 19
- Uni-Lions (+195, 0.5 units)
- Lions/Brothers, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5 units)
CPBL Year to Date: 8-3 (+4.73 Units)