MLB Odds & Picks for Dodgers vs. Rockies: Value Lies on Team Total in NL West Clash
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon.
- After an extra-innings win on Sunday Night Baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Denver to take on the Colorado Rockies.
- The Dodgers send Tyler Anderson to the mound against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies.
- Nick Martin explains below why the Rockies will put up plenty of runs in hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Los Angeles will begin a three-game set with Colorado after a late comeback on Sunday Night Baseball closed out an emotional series win over the Braves.
The Dodgers will send lefty Tyler Anderson to the mound Monday night. Anderson enters with an undefeated mark of 8-0 and an ERA of 3.00.
Colorado will counter with Chad Kuhl, who has pitched 68 innings to a reasonable ERA of 3.95.
Will Anderson move to 9-0, or could a Rockies lineup that has been very productive versus left-handed pitching manage a big number Monday?
Anderson Pitching Well for Dodgers
Anderson has been a very pleasant surprise for the Dodgers this season, pitching to an xERA of 3.11 in 72 innings so far.
Anderson does feature a less-than-stellar QOPA of 4.30, however, and has been hit hard over his last two road starts to earn an ERA of 7.88. He’s fared somewhat worse on the road altogether, owning a 3.03 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
In a tiny sample size, Colorado’s lineup has hit Anderson very effectively, which is not as surprising as it may seem considering the Rockies’ excellent splits against lefties and Anderson’s arsenal of pitches.
Rockies Continue to Tee Off Against Lefties
The Rockies have continued to put up far more favorable splits against left-handed pitching all season and enter this game with a 111 wRC+ and a .350 wOBA that ranks third in the league.
Anderson’s changeup has been one of the most effective pitches in baseball, but Colorado has racked up a +15.5 pitch value versus the pitch. That’s certainly favorable considering how much Anderson has relied on the changeup for outs in 2022.
It may take a solid offensive output for Colorado to hang around, as Kuhl could be in for some solid contact against the Dodgers’ lineup.
Kuhl has pitched to a QOPA of just 4.17 and has seen his numbers gradually regress after a strong April. In the month of June, Kuhl has pitched to a WHIP of 1.82.
Opponents are hitting .448 against Kuhl’s fastball this season, which is the highest mark amongst qualified starters in the big leagues. If the Dodgers keep their momentum rolling after the series win in Atlanta, they could cause problems for Colorado.
Colorado has quietly been one of the more productive teams in the league versus left-handed pitching, and that trend has continued of late. The Rockies have gone over their team total in four of their last five contests against left-handed starters.
At hitters-friendly Coors Field, it’s quite reasonable we’ll see the Rockies pay off traffic on the base paths with some early runs. I see value in backing Colorado to score three or more in the first five innings at -105 and would play this down to -115.
Pick: Rockies F5 Team Total Over 2.5