Friday MLB Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Red Sox vs. Yankees, Mets vs. A’s (September 23)
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Cole Irvin.
- There are 15 games on Friday's slate and our experts have found some betting value.
- They've identified plays in the Red Sox-Yankees game and in the Mets-A's contest.
- Continue reading for our best bets and analysis.
There's no shortage of storylines on Friday as several teams are fighting for a spot in the postseason and Aaron Judge is chasing history in New York.
There are 15 games on the slate and our experts have found betting value in two of them, targeting a team total and a first five innings runline.
Here are our best bets from tonight's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
DJ James: Gerrit Cole has slipped up a bit after a relatively dominant first half of the 2022 season. He and the New York Yankees will host their noted rival, the Boston Red Sox on Friday night.
Rich Hill will start against Cole, but this won't factor into our bet. Cole has a 4.04 ERA since the All-Star Break and ranks in the bottom-40% in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Percentage.
The Red Sox have fared well against right-handers in the past month. They have a team OBP of .349 and a wRC+ of 115. They have eight bats with a xwOBA over .320.
On the season, the Red Sox have faced Cole twice. In those two outings, they have manufactured eight earned runs off of him in 10 innings. Granted, the roster is not exactly the same, but banking on the Red Sox to hit a righty they have scouted in the past is a strong call.
Now, the Red Sox also have a rough bullpen, so this is yet another reason to not back the moneyline. The pitching matchup is not horribly favorable, but Boston will score.
Take the Red Sox team total over 3 (-120), and play to 4 (-130).
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics
Jules Posner: Look. This pick absolutely terries me, but there are a lot of reasons to take a risk here. Cole Irvin is 9-11 this season and 5-4 in home starts. Additionally, the A's are 7-8 at home in Irvin's starts and, considering how bad they are, that is pretty good!
Also, Irvin is 6-6 against teams .500 or better this season. That all must mean something! Oh, and Irvin deals at home. He has a 2.75 ERA at home this season and a 3.01 FIP to match. He's been a solid home starter and has impressive home wins against the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox.
Chris Bassitt will also be making his first career start in Oakland as a visitor. Overall, Bassitt has been much more vulnerable on the road than at home, where he has posted a 3.84 ERA and a 3.89 FIP. Perhaps a little extra adrenaline in a return to Oakland may impact the effectiveness of his stuff on Friday.
While the Mets offense is going to be tough to hold down, the A's offense is actually hitting well at home against right handers. Over the past two weeks Oakland has been in the upper half of the league in wRC+.
The A's F5 runline (+0.5) is priced at +105. That is definitely a risk worth taking. This is the A's best pitcher going in his stronger split against an opposing pitcher in his weaker split.
Although the Mets' offense has been excellent all year, there is a shot the A's can keep things close through five. Play it as long as it's in plus money.
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