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Wednesday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox: Chicago Should Thrive Against Aaron Civale

Wednesday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox: Chicago Should Thrive Against Aaron Civale article feature image
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Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Robert.

  • The White Sox are favored in their rubber game against the Guardians on Wednesday's MLB card.
  • Aaron Civale has struggled mightily of late, while Vince Velasquez is thriving with his new team.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the pitchers and the matchup below before making his betting pick.

Editor’s note: This game has been postponed due to positive COVID tests in the Guardians clubhouse.

Guardians vs. White Sox Odds

Guardians Odds +125
White Sox Odds -145
Over/Under 8.5
Time 2:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The White Sox punched back on Tuesday to even their series against the Guardians. On Wednesday, the rubber match could be decided very quickly since the men on the mound will be able to dictate how this game will play out.

Aaron Civale will get the ball for Cleveland, having not had a great 2022 so far with a 9.45 ERA. However, that ERA went down in his last start, during which he struck out eight Blue Jays over 5 2/3 innings. He allowed four runs, but a 2.64 xFIP for the start indicates bad luck.

Opposing Civale will be the rejuvenated Vince Velasquez. The 29-year-old right-hander (3.97 ERA) has appeared to benefit from a change of scenery, having allowed just one earned run over his last two starts. He’ll face a Guardians lineup that had looked lively until Tuesday, having entered the series coming off a series win over the Blue Jays and scoring 12 runs in the opener in Chicago.

The Guardians are due to regress both on the mound and at the dish. The only thing left to do is figure out whether it will happen in this matchup and how it favors the side we’re on.

Can Cleveland Solve Velasquez?

Velasquez’s resurgence is a sight to behold after his turbulent tenure in Philadelphia. He has a new approach, mixing in more pitches and relying less on his fastball. His underlying numbers are concerning, but it’s hard to argue with the results.

As I alluded to in the open, this Guardians lineup may have some issues with Velasquez because it’s due to cool off.

Cleveland enters this matchup second in the majors in average and runs scored. Those numbers are impressive when you consider that the Guardians only have two guys with above-average hard-hit rates and three with a xwOBA over .350.

Cleveland also has the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league. Without consistent solid contact, though, the Guardians offense is the epitome of “put the ball in play, and good things will happen.”

Unfortunately, baseball is a game of failure, and Cleveland’s .302 BABIP is bound to plummet. Velasquez has proven he’s capable of keeping lineups off balance, and the Guardians have the least formidable lineup that he’s faced this season.

Chicago Will Continue To Punish Civale

Civale’s numbers aren’t pretty, to say the least, and now he’ll face a team that has hit him very well in the past. Chicago has hit .293 with a .500 slugging percentage over 104 plate appearances against the right-hander Civale.

The standouts of those numbers are all at the top of the order. Yoan Moncada is hitting .400 against Civale, Luis Robert .455 and Tim Anderson .412 with three homers.

On top of Civale’s rough history against the South Siders, his underlying metrics don’t suggest a turnaround is inevitable. He’ll enter this start in the bottom third of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA and barrel rate.

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Guardians-White Sox Pick

The White Sox bounced back nicely on Tuesday and are in a wonderful spot to take the series. They’ll have one of their better arms on the mound facing a lineup that has been overachieving of late. In addition, Chicago should feast on a familiar face who’s already spiraling.

Back the White Sox to cap this series off in a big way.

Pick: White Sox -145

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