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Mariners vs. White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Seattle, Logan Gilbert Have Edge Against Unproven Jimmy Lambert (April 14)

Mariners vs. White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Seattle, Logan Gilbert Have Edge Against Unproven Jimmy Lambert (April 14) article feature image
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Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle’s J.P. Crawford

  • Logan Gilbert and the Mariners are road favorites against the White Sox and Jimmy Lambert on Thursday afternoon.
  • Chicago is going for the sweep, but is understandably an underdog with an unproven starting pitcher on the mound.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting prediction.

Mariners vs. White Sox Odds

Mariners Odds -120
White Sox Odds +100
Over/Under 9.5
Time 2:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a rainy Wednesday evening, the Seattle Mariners will remain in Chicago against the White Sox for the culmination of their weekday series. Prized prospect, Logan Gilbert, takes the hill for the Mariners, while Jimmy Lambert will make a spot start for the White Sox.

Neither team particularly crushes right-handed pitching, but given the inconsistency of the back-end of the White Sox bullpen with an inexperienced starter taking the bump in this game (due to a litany of injuries), the Mariners are the right side at an even moneyline.

Gilbert May Have the Upper Hand for the Mariners

Logan Gilbert was the 14th overall pick in 2018 for a reason. He boasts a four-seamer he utilizes more than 61% of the time, complimented by slider, curveball, and changeup. The xBA on his fastball is .258, and hitters don’t have any success on any of his alternate pitches.

The White Sox did not handle Matt Brash the other day well. Since Gilbert has a similar arsenal, similar results will likely ensue. He may rely a bit heavier on the fastball, but Chicago has not yet shown they can keep up with a right-hander much this season.

The Mariners have not had much success against righties, either. They have an 85 wRC+ thus far in early short season, but they do have an 11% Walk Rate. This will prove handy, as Lambert had a 10% Walk Rate in 13 innings of work in 2021. In 64 1/3 innings of work in AAA last season, he walked 11.9% of hitters.

This should be concerning for the already shorthanded White Sox pitching staff. If he racks up a high volume of early pitches, he will not go deep into the game. Seattle is a patient enough team to take bases when they are handed them.

The Mariner bullpen has been pretty impressive in their first few outings, too. They own a 3.01 xFIP, but they have allowed plenty of fly-balls. After Gilbert takes an exit, the power hitters in the White Sox lineup, like Luis Robert, José Abreu, and Yasmani Grandal may be able to take advantage.

Nonetheless, they need to hit righties. Anthony Misiewicz and Justus Sheffield are the only southpaws in the Mariner ‘pen, and manager Scott Servais knows better than to throw a lefty unless it is favorable. He will probably avoid it against this righty-heavy Sox team.


White Sox Have Unproven Starter

As shown above, Lambert has not even shown promise when he pitched lately in the minors, let alone the big leagues. With a revamped and powerful/patient Mariners lineup, he will have trouble. His only saving grace would be keeping the ball on the ground, but he has not shown that ability at all.

The White Sox bullpen might be able to save the day, but after logging five innings in Tuesday’s home opener and relying on Dallas Keuchel to go deep into the game, they might be a bit stretched.

They do own a 3.52 xFIP on the young season, and even though Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks should be the most reliable arms out of the ‘pen, they have not had an easy start. Given their pedigree, they will stabilize, but they have not done so yet.

The Sox lineup also struggles against righties. They don’t have as much depth last year, but missing Yoán Moncada and A.J. Pollock at the moment does not help.

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Mariners-White Sox Pick

There is no reason to trust Jimmy Lambert suddenly. Although Gilbert is just as inexperienced, he has a far higher ceiling and will thrive against this Chicago lineup.

Since they are plagued with injuries and have not been as strong at closing out games yet this season with Bummer and Hendriks, there is plenty of value on Seattle. Take the Mariners at -110, and play to -120.

Pick: Seattle Mariners -110, play to -120

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