Mets vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Urías and LA at Home (Sunday, June 5)

Mets vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Urías and LA at Home (Sunday, June 5) article feature image

Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias.

  • The Dodgers are home favorites on Sunday against the Mets.
  • With Trevor Williams filling in for the Mets as a starter today, is there value in fading him?
  • Michael Arinze breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Mets vs. Dodgers Odds

Mets Odds+150
Dodgers Odds-180
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

There was a real chance for the Mets to make a statement and announce their arrival as the best team in the National League heading into this four-game road series with the Dodgers. After all, the Dodgers were just humiliated in a three-game sweep at home against the lowly Pirates. Los Angeles won the first two games against the Mets before the visitors clawed back with a 9-4 victory after trailing 4-1 in the second inning.

The Mets will hope for a split in the series with Trevor Williams getting the start in the finale. Williams is in the rotation because the Mets are already without key starters Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, who are on the IL.

Los Angeles will counter with Julio Urías, who's suffered a loss in his past two starts despite probably pitching well enough to win. That could give Urías some extra motivation heading into this contest. Although it takes more than just motivation to win games. The Dodgers should like their chances even more given their edge in the pitching matchup on Sunday.

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Will Williams Lead the Mets on the Road?

Williams' versatility is why the Mets signed him to a one-year deal following his arrival last year in the Javier Báez trade. The former Cub and longtime Pirate has been a starter in the majors for most of his career. Of his 138 appearances, he's started 113 games.

Although Williams has been somewhat effective with the Mets, I think it's clear that they don't view him as a starter. He's there to fill a void, and I don't expect anyone to get too carried away even after delivering a solid performance of five shutout innings in his last start. However, he was facing a Nationals team that's won the second-fewest games (20) in the National League.

It's also worth noting that the game was at Citi Field, where Williams has been a much different pitcher compared to on the road. In four outings at home, he's 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and a 2.70 FIP. However, on the road he's 0-3 with a 5.02 ERA and a 4.54 FIP in five appearances.

Those numbers mirror what we've seen from Williams throughout a career that includes over 600 innings. He has a 3.62 ERA at home vs. a 5.24 ERA on the road.

We'll also find similar parallels in how he's pitched on the road against the Dodgers. Williams has allowed 11 earned runs in nine innings in two career outings at Dodger Stadium. It won't get any easier when he faces this Dodgers lineup that comes in with a .295 BA/.425 wOBA/.636 SLG line in 44 at-bats against him.

Can the Dodgers Give Urías Enough Run Support?

Things haven't entirely gone according to plan for Urías after a 2021 campaign in which he recorded the most wins (20) in baseball. This season, he's pitched in some tough luck as he's allowed just four runs in three of his five losses. Overall, he's 3-5 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. While those numbers are impressive, his 4.51 FIP does point to some regression. That's more than one run higher than his career 3.45 FIP.

The biggest reason his FIP is elevated this season is the home run ball. His 1.53 HR/9 ratio is his highest in the majors. However, I think he can succeed against this Mets lineup that's done most of their damage against right-handed pitchers.

New York has a .273 BA/.341 OBP/.419 SLG against righties vs. a .244 BA/.320 OBP/.379 SLG against lefties. Urías also has good numbers against this current Mets lineup, given their .250 BA/.268 wOBA/.282 SLG in 36 plate appearances.

The Dodgers will likely need Urías to eat some innings after Walker Buehler couldn't make it out of the third inning on Saturday. Mets starter David Peterson was slightly better after completing 3 2/3 innings before exiting the game.

Urías has pitched at least six innings in five of his last six starts, whereas Williams has lasted more than four innings just once this season. If both pitchers are asked to stay on the mound to avoid an early visit from the bullpen, I'd have to think the Dodgers are in a much better position with Urías.

Mets-Dodgers Pick

Given the home-away splits of Williams, I want no part of him in this spot. His head-to-head numbers are also a reason for concern. As a result, I think it makes sense to isolate Williams and target him in the game's first five innings.

According to our ActionLabs database, Williams is just 1-11 (-9.61 units) against the first five runline in his last 12 starts as a road underdog.

That's a trend I can certainly get behind, so I'll look to play the Dodgers at -0.5/-120 over at DraftKings.

Pick: Dodgers F5 RL -0.5 (-120)

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