MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mets vs. Nationals: Back Slugger Pete Alonso Via This Prop Bet (Wednesday, Aug. 3)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets star Pete Alonso.
- The Mets look to rebound against the Nationals in Wednesday's MLB matinee.
- Analyst Nicholas Martin isn't too keen on backing either side due to the huge moneyline number sitting on favorite New York, but he has found a wager he loves in the props market.
- Check out below where he has landed with his pick tied to Mets slugger Pete Alonso.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds
| Mets Odds | -290 |
| Nationals Odds | +235 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Even though Washington was widely expected to deal 23-year-old superstar Juan Soto prior to the trade deadline, it still seemed shocking when word officially broke Tuesday that the star had been traded to San Diego.
That said, the short-handed Nationals win on Jacob deGrom return to the Mets seemed similarly shocking Tuesday for most people. It was a game that featured Cory Abbott dealing five scoreless innings, en route to a 5-1 victory as massive underdogs.
New York will be huge favorites in Wednesday's contest as well, with Blake Wheeler set to take on Anibal Sanchez in the pitching matchup.
So, are the Mets worthy of a -290 moneyline price tag? Let's see where we can find betting value ahead of this showdown.
New York Mets
In a storyline which has become all too familiar for de Grom and Mets fans over the last several seasons, the team was unable to scratch across any run support for its ace and spoiled his strong return to the mound.
However, a matchup against Sanchez shouldn't mean the same fate for Bassitt, as the Mets have crushed right-handed pitching to a wRC+ of 113 and .323 woba this season.
As you would expect, Pete Alonso has has been particularly effective versus righties, boasting a .547 SLG rate and a .284 average this season. Alonso has bounced back from a slow start to July with hits in 16 of 36 at-bats since July 23 and remained constant with steady hard-hit rates.
Historically, Alonso has owned Sanchez, batting .556 against him in nine plate appearances with two home runs.
Washington Nationals
Sanchez has allowed a shocking 2.47 WHIP to right-handed batters with an xFIP of 6.97 this season. And although those marks will improve over a larger sample size, it's a firm comment that Alonso's dominance in this matchup could continue.
Sanchez does appear due for some positive regression toward more livable numbers than his current ERA of 7.47, yet his xFIP of 4.78 still suggests at lot of runs will come in moving forward.
Mets-Nationals Pick
We should see New York bounce back with a win most of the time in this spot, so I imagine the club will manage a strong offensive total against Sanchez and the soft Washington bullpen.
However, my favorite bet is backing Pete Alonso to go clear 1.5 total bases at -130 odds via DraftKings considering how well this matchup sets up for the powerful slugger.
Should Alonso end up resting for this game, which would seem to be a really iffy decision considering his numbers versus Sanchez, I would then be looking at Chris Bassitt to go over 5.5 strikeouts as my favorite prop in this contest.
Pick: Pete Alonso — Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 | Play to -135)
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