MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Odds for Astros vs Marlins, Mariners vs Royals (Monday, August 14)
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Dominic Canzone
A new week in Major League Baseball is upon us and Monday brings nine games with it, including many teams still jockeying for playoff position in the final two months of the season.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, August 14th.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Astros vs. Marlins
By Kenny Ducey
I love ground-ball pitchers, which is why I’ve really come to love Framber Valdez over the years. After all, keeping the ball on the ground is the best way to pitch in the launch angle era if you don’t have top-tier strikeout ability like Shohei Ohtani.
Valdez has done it better than anyone, and even in a down year for his ground balls he’s still roughly 10 points above league average in that regard.
Just like any other style of pitcher, though, there are bad matchups for ground ball guys. When you face a team which routinely converts ground balls and weak contact into base hits, it’s a lot harder to stifle them.
That’s what we have on Monday in the form of the Miami Marlins, who lead the league in ground-ball rate and have come up with a stellar .262 batting average this season, ranking third in baseball.
This is a solid spot to play the Marlins, who are fifth in wRC+ to left-handed pitching and have hit .275 against ground-ball pitchers this year, according to Baseball Reference.
Braxton Garrett has been steadily improving for Miami, allowing just five earned over his last three starts thanks to some higher ground-ball numbers, and he should be in a great spot against a team that loves to elevate and celebrate.
Miami is live for the upset here.
Mariners vs. Royals
By Doug Ziefel
The Seattle Mariners have begun to heat up as they are 8-2 over their last 10 games and just 1.5 games out of the American League playoff picture.
Their recent hot streak has been sparked by their lineup, which has quietly been one of the best in baseball. Seattle is currently fifth in xwOBACON, and their consistent loud contact has finally begun to produce results.
The Mariners are in line to stay hot tonight as they'll get to face Royals starter Brady Singer, who has been clobbered this season. He comes into this outing sporting a 5.05 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
He has not fooled many hitters, and his contact metrics are the proof. Singer ranks in the fourth percentile in average exit velocity allowed and is in the first percentile in hard-hit rate.
As for the other side of this matchup, Logan Gilbert shouldn't have many issues navigating through the Royals' order. Yes, Kansas City possesses some pop, but in large part, their collective plate discipline has limited their offensive output.
The Royals have the fifth-highest chase rate in baseball and are 18th in chase contact rate. Kansas City's flaw falls right into the right hand of Gilbert as his chase rate ranks in the 75th percentile among all qualified starters.
Back the Mariners to keep rolling tonight and be up halfway through this one. Play to -145.