Thursday's Major League Baseball slate continues on Thursday night with MLB's annual Field of Dreams game between the Twins and Phillies at 7:30 PM ET.
However, we've also got two late-night games: Rangers vs Angels (10:07 PM ET, Angel Stadium) and Brewers vs Dodgers (10:10 PM ET, Dodger Stadium).
Our staff of betting experts has picks for all those games and more in our MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 PM | |
| 7:30 PM | |
| 7:30 PM | |
  | 10:07 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
| 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nick Martin's Phillies vs Twins Best Bet
By Nick Martin
The Phillies hold a superior 64-58 record playing out of a much more competitive division than the Twins, but they look to be overvalued with most sportsbooks essentially pricing this game as a pick 'em.
Minnesota's lineup has been hard on righties and should match up well versus Aaron Nola, while Taj Bradley will offer a tougher test for the Phillies lineup.
Minnesota's bullpen also looks much less concerning following its recent additions, while Philly's middle-relief options are shaky.
At -110 or better, there's value on the Twins in this exciting matchup.
Read Martin's full Twins-Phillies Field of Dreams preview here:
Pick: Twins ML (-110 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Phillies vs Twins Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
Leg 1: Over 8.5
Taj Bradley will take the mound for the Twins on Thursday night, while the Phillies will trot out Aaron Nola.
Bradley has looked great this year, posting a 3.76 ERA across 132 frames this season.
That said, he’s had a poor history with many of these Philly bats. Both Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have homered off Taj. Bryce Harper is 2-for-3 off Bradley with two doubles.
Meanwhile, Nola has been abysmal this season, running a 5.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Minnesota’s lineup has been inconsistent recently, but Byron Buxton is set to return to the lineup on Thursday night, meaning the Twins will have a full deck — this offense is dangerous when Buxton and Royce Lewis are both healthy.
I’m expecting fireworks in this affair.
Leg 2: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
What a game for Buxton to return from injury. I expect him to have a big night at the plate.
Nola throws his four-seam a good amount (24% usage), but it’s been based around this season (.401 xwOBA allowed). That’ll be a problem against Buxton, who is slugging .644 against four-seamers this season.
Though Buxton has recorded just one hit in six previous at-bats against Nola, I expect him to make a big statement on Thursday.
Pick: +160 SGP (Over 8.5, Byron Buxton Over 1.5 HRR)
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Grant Neiffer's Phillies vs Twins Best Bet
We've got the Field of Dreams game tonight, and it could be a great one.
Rain is a concern, but if the game plays clean, the hitting environment should be great. The humidity is going to be really high with the potential rain and the corn sweats.
Taj Bradley has been an above-average matchup for lefty power this season, allowing a 1.39 HR/9.
Given the positive matchup and positive hitting conditions, I have the true odds on a Bryce Harper bomb around +375, making it a great bet.
Check out all five of Neiffer's HR props for the Field of Dreams game here:
Pick: Bryce Harper Home Run
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Matt Trollo's Rangers vs Angels Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Jacob deGrom has allowed five or six runs in five of his last 16 starts. He’s also allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 22 starts this season.
DeGrom has some newfound issues in his contact profile this year (9 Barrels/BBE, 45.5 HardHit%), but with a 23.4 K-BB%, his worst estimator is still just a 3.60 xERA, more than a quarter of a run below his 3.87 ERA.
His 75.3 LOB% is a career low for any season where he’s reached the 65-inning mark.
This is still a quality pitcher with a quality defense behind him (15 FRV via BARTOLO’s projected lineup).
The lineup he’s projected to face is not a good one, averaging just an 80 wRC+ on the road, 95 wRC+ vs RHP, and 60 wRC+ over the last month. It includes five batters with a 56 wRC+ or lower over the last 30 days. The bottom four are nearly automatic outs, none above an 85 wRC+ against RHP this year either.
The Rangers' bullpen has the fourth-worst estimators in the league over the last 30 days (4.60 FIP, 4.94 xFIP, 4.54 SIERA), with BARTOLO ranking them 22nd (4.14 wFIP). Chase Silseth was their big trade deadline acquisition. From the Angels.
While Walbert Urena’s 2.83 ERA is a run below deGrom’s, the underlying quality of his work has been three-quarters of a run worse, but fairly respectably around four, especially over the last month in which he’s generated a 4.18 SIERA and .298 xwOBA allowed.
Urena has walked 12.6% of the batters he’s faced this year, but with 54% of his contact on the ground and a 33.3 HardHit%. A lot of weak ground balls is a good way to make up for all those walks.
The Texas projected lineup is very average, combining for a 110 wRC+ on the road, but 101 wRC+ both against RHP and over the last 30 days.
There are still some outs in the bottom half of this lineup, with none of Jaker Burger, Elias Diaz, and Nicky Lopez exceeding a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year or a 75 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
They’re also a bottom-third of the league offense in stolen bases with 58 (12 of them no longer on the active roster), so those Urena walks are more likely to turn into double plays than extra bases.
Also, whereas the Angels have been a terrible defensive team, they’ve also ditched some of their worse defensive players. Thursday’s projected defense sits at 5 FRV.
Unfortunately, the Angels traded off a lot of the bullpen that has a 3.33 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, and 3.25 SIERA over the last month. BARTOLO ranks them 23rd (4.16 wFIP).
Angel Stadium is a perfectly neutral run environment, with the early weather forecast suggesting only a 1-2% boost, half of which is reclaimed by scheduled umpire Marvin Hudson (-0.8).
As mentioned, I have Urena around four, with deGrom sitting about three-quarters of a run better. Then the Texas offense is around average, with the Angels sitting nearly 20 points (wRC+) below.
A key here is that the combined projected defenses register a positive 20 FRV.
Now, both bullpens are a concern, and the last time I said that the Phillies and Cardinals combined to allow 8 runs over the last 4 innings on Monday, but that’s not the norm, even with the worst bullpens.
Even with the potential late damage factored in, I still can’t get to 8 runs here and am happy playing the Under 7.5.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Brewers vs Dodgers Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Dodgers ML in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the data I use to project MLB games each day.
Below, you can see the BARTOLO breakdown for Brewers-Dodgers, which is just a snippet of what you can get with BARTOLO.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-155 or Better)
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Doug Ziefel's Brewers vs Dodgers Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
This is a sell-high spot on Roki Sasaki.
Yes, it's nice to see him realize some of the potential that made him such a coveted signing, but this Brewers lineup is too stingy and will be a real barometer for his progression.
We'll likely see an outing from him similar to the last time he faced Milwaukee. The Brewers are due to get back on track offensively, and they will make Sasaki battle.
With the Dodgers bullpen fully rested, his leash won't be long if there is traffic in the middle innings.
Pick: Roki Sasaki Under 16.5 Outs (-120 or Better)
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