Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, August 13.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- White Sox -135, 1.35u | Bet to -160
- Red Sox -164, 1.64u | Bet to -215
- Rangers/Angels Under 8 (100), 1u | Bet to 7.5
- Brewers +124, 0.5u | Bet to +115
- Brewers/Dodgers Under 8.5 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 8.5
Reds @ White Sox Picks
It’s four quality starts for Andrew Abbott in his last six, but only twice with fewer than three runs and an overall 4.01 ERA over this span with all non-FIP estimators even higher.
His 3.92 ERA on the season is at least three-quarters of run below all estimators, ranging from a 4.66 Bot ERA (93 Pitching+) to a 5.11 dERA.
Has Abbott beaten his estimators in the past? Yes.
However, this season is the furthest he’s ever been from his xERA (4.75) and SIERA (5.02). His 6.8 K-BB% is his first time in single digits.
It truly has been smoke and mirrors for Abbott this year with RHBs owning a .320 wOBA, but .360 xwOBA against him.
The projected White Sox lineup (via BARTOLO) includes four batters above a 135 wRC+ against LHP and four below 85 with Munetaka Murakami (102) in between. It’s an average 102 wRC+ and .181 ISO against RHP, 104 over the last 30 days and 103 on the road without any super small samples, other than what the short half of a platoon normally sees in a season. In other words, we’re not projecting anyone for the White Sox who has come late to the party.
The defense behind Abbott is projected to be average (-2 FRV – Fielding Run Value), while the bullpen is a surprise among the top third of the league over the last month with a 3.71 FIP, 4.05 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA, though BARTOLO ranks Cincinnati the 2nd worst relief unit in the league without a single reliever registering a wFIP below four.
Perhaps it was a mercy that Davis Martin’s last start was cut to one inning by rain. He’s endured a 6.44 ERA over his last 14 starts with at least four runs in half of them, but his 4.66 xFIP during this stretch is still better than Abbott’s on the season (4.85).
Abbott has the better contact profile, but even over the last month, Martin’s SIERA is 0.86 runs better.
The first four batters in the projected Cincinnati lineup range from a 105 wRC+ to a 123 wRC+ against RHP this year with only one (Bleday 123) above 107. Nobody else reaches 90 and three sit no higher than 65, including Ke’Bryan Hayes at…I believe that number is a ZERO.
On average it’s a 78 wRC+ and .155 ISO against RHP, and remember they play half their games in one of the most power friendly parks in the league, along with an 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 78 on the road.
The projected defense behind Martin is also average (4 FRV) with a bullpen that basically swapped out Seranthony Dominguez for Huascar Brazoban at the deadline running a 4.02 FIP, 4.49 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA over the last 30 days. BARTOLO ranks the White Sox the 16th best bullpen in the league.
None of the numbers for either of these starting pitchers encourages me, but I still tentatively have Martin nearly half a run ahead of Abbott without too much confidence and it encourages me that most of the former's key issue has been with LHBs (.328 wOBA, .354 xwOBA), something the Cincinnati lineup lacks in quality and quality.
I'm more confident in an offensive gap greater than 20 points (wRC+), while the White Sox also project the better defense (6 FRV) and better bullpen via BARTOLO, though last 30 day estimators do have the Reds nearly half a run better.
The overall package allows me to project the White Sox as substantial favorirtes, where the market has them just moderately so. I have the full game and F5 portions nearly equal values, so it really depends on personal preference and I elect to involve the bullpens and disregard the opportunity for a push here.
Play to -160, but reduce to 0.5u above -150.
Picks: White Sox -135, 1.35u | Bet to -160
Red Sox @ Blue Jays Picks
Peyton Tolle struck out a career high 14 A’s in his last start and say whatever you want about the lineup the team from Sacramento is currently posting, but Tolle also sat at his highest velocity of the season (97.6 mph), a half mph above his previous high in his first start (97.1) and he did this in just 84 pitches.
In fact, that’s five straight starts with at least seven strikeouts and a high of 90 pitches for Tolle.
https://x.com/OptaSTATS/status/2085908984851042498
With a 21.8 K-BB% and 35.5 HardHit% it seems Boston just replaced Garrett Crochet with another version of him. Tolle isn’t running a single estimator reaching three and a half.
BARTOLO’s projected nine (which includes Alejandro Kirk for the day game after a night game) is averaging just an 89 wRC+ at home, 94 wRC+ (.148 ISO) vs LHP and 86 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The bottom five batters does not include a single one reaching league average in either of the last two categories.
The Boston projected defense (without Rutschman) sits at 9 FRV and a bullpen that didn’t need to do much has the best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (2.68 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 3.01 SIERA) by nearly two-tenths of a run over the second best bullpen. It’s also BARTOLO’s top rated bullpen with a 3.44 wFIP.
Max Scherzer hasn’t embarrassed himself in three starts back from the IL, allowing just four runs over 14 innings with a 15.3 K-BB% and 33 HardHit%. His K-BB has been above 17% in each of his last two and his 94.2 mph fastball average last time out was his highest of the season by half a mph. Scherzer hasn’t averaged 94 mph for a full season since his first year with the Mets (2022).
Scherzer has a 3.99 ERA and has allowed a .314 wOBA in these three starts, though LHBs still have a .348 wOBA against him (.412 for the season).
All great signs and probably the most we can hope for out of Scherzer, who’s only remaining goal is climbing the career strikeout leaderboard (19 more to Gaylord Perry in 9th place).
For some reason, the Boston offense has hit better away from Fenway this year with Thursday’s projected lineup (sans Rutschman) averaging a 115 wRC+ on the road, 103 vs RHP and 117 over the last 30 days. Only Jarren Duran (63) and Connor Wong (36) are below a 115 wRC+ over the last month.
I’m projecting Kirk in, but Rutschman out for a couple of reasons.
First, this game is a couple of hours later than a normal day game in Toronto and the LHP necessitates more of a need for Kirk’s bat, while Rustchman is just off a long IL stint a couple of days ago. This would seem like a good spot to rest him.
Second, to illustrate the point that I’m coming to my conclusion on this game while giving Toronto the better catching situation.
Toronto, in part because of that catching projection, would have 19 FRV on the field with BARTOLO’s nine.
A bullpen that traded away Jeff Hoffman at the deadline owns a 4.02 FIP, 4.57 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA over the last 30 days. Their 7.7 K-BB% is fourth worst in the league during this run. BARTOLO ranks them 14th overall.
I have Peyton Tolle fairly well aligned with his 3.20 ERA according to underlying metrics. That gives him a two run edge over Scherzer’s season numbers and still nearly a run better than Scherzer’s post-IL uptick.
More clearly, the Boston offense is nearly 20 points (wRC+) ahead of the Toronto one in this situation.
Toronto does get a 10 FRV edge here (which also depends on the catching situations), but bullpen estimators separate these teams by more than a run and a third over the last 30 days and nearly half a run by BARTOLO’s rankings.
I make the Red Sox very large favorites here and would play them to -215, dropping to half a unit above -200.
Also, if you play on FanDuel and have chosen 50% Profit Boosts as your rewards this week, this is a great game to use one on (I boosted it to -109).
Picks: Red Sox -164, 1.64u | Bet to -215
Rangers @ Angels Picks
Jacob deGrom has allowed five or six runs in five of his last 16 starts. He’s also allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 22 starts this season.
DeGrom has some newfound issues in his contact profile this year (9 Barrels/BBE, 45.5 HardHit%), but with a 23.4 K-BB%, his worst estimator is still just a 3.60 xERA, more than a quarter of a run below his 3.87 ERA.
His 75.3 LOB% is a career low for any season where he’s reached the 65 inning mark.
This is still a quality pitcher with a quality defense behind him (15 FRV via BARTOLO’s projected lineup).
The lineup he’s projected to face is not a good one, averaging just an 80 wRC+ on the road, 95 wRC+ vs RHP and 60 wRC+ over the last month. It includes five batters with a 56 wRC+ or lower over the last 30 days. The bottom four are nearly automatic outs, none above an 85 wRC+ against RHP this year either.
The Ranger bullpen has the 4th worst estimators in the league over the last 30 days (4.60 FIP, 4.94 xFIP, 4.54 SIERA) with BARTOLO ranking them 22nd (4.14 wFIP). Chase Silseth was their big trade deadline acquisition. From these Angels.
While Walbert Urena’s 2.83 ERA is a run below deGrom’s, the underlying quality of his work has been three-quarters of a run worse, but fairly respectably around four, especially over the last month in which he’s generated a 4.18 SIERA and .298 xwOBA allowed.
Urena has walked 12.6% of the batters he’s faced this year, but with 54% of his contact on the ground and a 33.3 HardHit%. A lot of weak ground balls is a good way to make up for all those walks.
The Texas projected lineup is very average, combining for a 110 wRC+ on the road, but 101 wRC+ both against RHP and over the last 30 days.
There are still some outs in the bottom half of this lineup with none of Jaker Burger, Elias Diaz and Nicky Lopez exceeding a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year or a 75 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
They’re also a bottom third of the league offense in stolen bases with 58 (12 of them no longer on the active roster), so those Urena walks are more likely to turn into double plays than extra bases.
Also, whereas the Angels have been a terrible defensive team, they’ve also ditched some of their worse defensive players. Thursday’s projected defense sits at 5 FRV.
Unfortunately, the Angels traded off a lot of the bullpen that has a 3.33 FIP, 3.62 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA over the last month. BARTOLO ranks them 23rd (4.16 wFIP).
Angel Stadium is a perfectly neutral run environment with the early weather forecast suggesting only a 1-2% boost, half of which is reclaimed by scheduled umpire Marvin Hudson (-0.8).
As mentioned, I have Urena around four with deGrom sitting about three-quarters of a run better. Then the Texas offense around average with the Angels sitting nearly 20 points (wRC+) below.
A key here is that the combined projected defenses register a positive 20 FRV.
Now, both bullpens are a concern and the last time I said that the Phillies and Cardinals combined to allow 8 runs over the last 4 innings on Monday, but that’s not the norm, even with the worst bullpens.
Even with the potential late damage factored in, I still can’t get to 8 runs here.
I don’t begrudge waiting to see if it gets to 8.5, as it’s nearly there in some spots, but I’m fine with 8 at even money and would play to 7.5, dropping to 0.5u below 8.
Picks: Under 8 (100), 1u | Bet to 7.5
Brewers @ Dodgers Picks
Shane Drohan has been very hit or miss, but his last start was the first time he failed to go at least six innings with at least six strikeouts in a month. Since entering the rotation on June 1st (12 starts), his 4.39 ERA is well above his 3.84 xERA, 3.74 FIP and 3.89 xFIP.
Kind of odd considering his home park is one of the more negative run environments in the league, but a .320 BABIP will often have that kind of effect. Drohan has a 16.2 K-BB% and 36.5 HardHit% allowed in those 12 starts.
The Dodgers will be the toughest offense he’s faced because they’re one of the toughest offenses anyone ever faces, but this is their lesser split, as they lack quality RHBs.
Thursday’s projected lineup from BARTOLO averages a 112 wRC+ and .179 ISO against LHP, despite Tommy Edman at just a 97 wRC+ and Mookie Betts at 52. They generally bat 4th and 5th against LHP.
The Dodgers also regularly play four or so LHBs against LHP and batters from that side have just a .280 wOBA (.277 xwOBA) against Drohan.
Drohan’s projected defense sits at a solid 4 FRV. The bullpen that will be relieving him has the fourth best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (3.07 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA) and rates as BARTOLO’s 11th best unit (3.76 wFIP).
It appears Roki Sasaki has turned himself into at least a useful starter, allowing six runs (five earned) over his last 24 innings. He’s done this with a 20.2 K-BB% and all four starts above 16%, while also holding opponents to a 34.4 HardHit%.
On the season, non-FIP estimators range from a 4.01 xFIP to a 4.18 xERA, about half a run better than his 4.54 ERA. I also don’t include pitch modeling (3.21 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+) in there because he often runs into pitch classification issues with confusion between his splitter and forkball (he may be throwing both).
A Milwaukee projected lineup averaging a 107 wRC+ on the road, 109 (.159 ISO) vs RHP and 105 over the last 30 days compares well to their counterparts.
The projected Dodger defense sits at 16 FRV, but a bullpen that really did nothing to improve at the deadline, has the 6th worst estimators in the league over the last month (4.90 FIP, 4.75 xIFP, 4.17 SIERA). A lot of that is on Edwin Diaz, who has just a 13.6 K-BB% and has had a few meltdowns since returning from the IL. BARTOLO still ranks the Dodger bullpen best in the league (3.47 wFIP).
Dodger Stadium boosts scoring by 2% on average with an early Thursday forecasting suggesting anywhere from an additional 1% boost to a 2.6% reduction. We do not yet have an umpire assignment for the first game of this series.
Both of these teams have hit a little bit of a wall in August and I don’t have much separating them right now, at least in terms of the components for this particular game.
The biggest point of contention probably being whether you believe the Dodger pen is what they have been or what they project to be.
A combination of both keeps this game very close and the Brewers getting +124 may be a bit too much. A respectable Dodger bullpen probably also keeps this game below 8.5 more often than not.
Brewers +124, 0.5u | Bet to 115, Under 8.5 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 8.5
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 13
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- White Sox -135, 1.35u | Bet to -160
- Red Sox -164, 1.64u | Bet to -215
- Rangers/Angels Under 8 (100), 1u | Bet to 7.5
- Brewers +124, 0.5u | Bet to +115
- Brewers/Dodgers Under 8.5 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 8.5
