MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Padres vs Pirates, Mets vs Brewers, More (Thursday, June 29)
Pictured: William Contreras and Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Another day, another betting opportunity.
There are 12 games on the Thursday, June 29 MLB slate and numerous angles to bet. Our experts have found value in Padres vs. Pirates, Guardians vs. Royals and Mets vs. Brewers. Not only did they find value in three separate games, they're also targeting a trio of different bet types, including a team total, a runline and a plus-money moneyline.
The picks are below, so continue reading for the MLB best bets for Thursday, June 29.
Wednesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs. Pirates
Thursday, June 29 12:35 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Padres Team Total Over 5 Runs (-113)  |
By D.J. James
The Pirates will send one of their top prospects — Luis L. Ortiz — to the mound to face the Padres on Thursday. Although Ortiz throws a plus fastball, his expected stats are far better than his results. Regression is sure to hit at some point and this matchup against San Diego may be just the spot.
The Padres can hit.
They have a 106 wRC+ with a 9.9% walk rate and a 21.3% strikeout rate against righties in June. The Padres have a .738 OPS, but also have multiple players who can hit the ball hard. San Diego has five batters with a xwOBA over .320 against right-handed pitching this season, which means most of the lineup can put together capable at-bats.
Ortiz probably has a future in the Pirates rotation, but he's been lucky in every start. His Hard Hit Percentage ranks in the 13th percentile and his Average Exit Velocity ranks in the ninth percentile — opponents are hitting him hard and hitting him hard often. His strikeout rate is also below 16% and his walk rate is nearly 11%. That's not a recipe for success and explains his elevated xERA.
Additionally, Pittsburgh's relievers have fallen off significantly. They have the worst June xFIP in baseball (5.52) and are only stranding 64.5% of baserunners. As a result, the Padres should be able to tack on additional runs in the later innings.
San Diego’s bats are heating up and backing their team total is a good bet. Take the Padres at 5 and play them to -135.
Pick: Padres Over 5 Runs |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Royals
Thursday, June 29 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Guardians -1.5 (+105)  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the Thursday slate is the Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+104).
The Guardians are coming off a big win in Kansas City on Wednesday and face the Royals once again today. Veteran right-hander Zack Greinke will get the start for Kansas City in what looks like a good matchup for Cleveland as Greinke has allowed a .241 ISO to left-handed hitters this season and Cleveland boasts a lineup full of lefties.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are the Guardians' premier power bats against right-handed pitching with each having at least a .180 ISO against right-handed pitching. Cleveland will also send its ace — Shane Bieber — to the mound for this game. Bieber has a 3.69 ERA and has struck out at least eight batters in two of his past three starts.
The Guardians are second in all of baseball with a 2.94 bullpen ERA, while the Royals have the third-worst bullpen ERA at 4.85. Cleveland should be able to win this game convincingly.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Brewers
Thursday, June 29 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Brewers Moneyline (+170) |
By D.J. James
The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets have struggled offensively lately and will face off again Thursday. Adrian Houser goes up against Max Scherzer.
At a first glance, Scherzer and the Mets appear to have a clear edge over the Brewers. However, Houser has performed just as well — if not better — lately.
In June, Houser holds a 3.94 ERA over 16 innings. He has two bad starts this season, but has otherwise been one of the more reliable arms in Milwaukee's rotation. He ranks in the middle of the league in both Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate, rarely allows barrels and has an above average walk rate. He won't blow any fan away, but can put together a good outing.
Scherzer owns a 3.95 ERA against a 3.45 xERA, so positive regression is in the cards. That said, he has the highest Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Rate and Barrel Rate of his career. He also owns a 4.50 ERA over 30 innings in June.
Now, both bullpens have been subpar this month. Milwaukee has a 4.59 xFIP against New York’s 4.74 xFIP, though Scherzer will surely pitch deep into this outing to negate some of the Mets bullpen.
Regardless, this line is too inflated for the Mets and Scherzer. Back Milwaukee to +135.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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