MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Yankees vs Marlins, Padres vs Diamondbacks (Saturday, August 12)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen.
Saturday's Major League Baseball slate brings us 16 games, starting this afternoon with a doubleheader between the Braves and Mets.
The games are spread throughout the day, and our analysts are keyed in on two in particular: Yankees vs. Marlins and Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Saturday, August 12.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Yankees vs. Marlins
A phoenix rising from the ashes.
Yeah, the man stunk it up in the first half. It was embarrassing.
But now, he has a sub-3.00 ERA over his past eight starts.
He’s struck out 47 batters across 53 innings with only nine walks. Alcantara ranks ninth in Stuff+ among qualified pitchers over the past month (117), sandwiching him between Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole.
But, even more important, he’s gotten back to his ground-ball ways. He’s posted a 55% ground-ball rate over his past eight starts.
He’s forced double-digit ground balls in six consecutive starts, inducing 71 ground balls while allowing only 33 fly balls during the stretch. And, across those six starts, his sinker has a ridiculous 69% ground-ball rate.
Alcantara’s stuff is nasty, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground, so he can pitch deep into games while allowing few baserunners. He’s one of baseball’s best pitchers when he's accomplishing those tasks.
And we can buy low on one of baseball’s best pitchers this Saturday.
Alcantara allowed four earned runs across six innings against the Rangers in his last start. But that was fluke-y, as he allowed three homers, including two on hanging sliders.
Aside from three bad pitches, Alcantara struck out seven, walked none, induced 10 ground balls and allowed only five hard-hit balls against one of baseball’s best offenses.
He’ll be undervalued entering this start against the Yankees. And it’s a perfect time to dominate the Yankees, considering they’ll be slightly overvalued following Friday’s explosion.
But you might not know that the Yankees are a top-10 offense against left-handed pitching, so it makes sense they slapped around Jesus Luzardo.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees are useless. They stack eight right-handed hitters in their lineup and have no depth (pitch around Aaron Judge, and you’re essentiall pitching to the Oakland A’s).
Alcantara’s xwOBA is 34 points lower against right-handed hitters than left-handed ones. And in 38 lifetime PAs against current Yankee hitters, Alcantara has allowed three hits, including only one extra-base hit (a double), with 11 strikeouts and three walks, adding up to a .228 xwOBA allowed.
I think we are in for an Alcantara classic at LoanDepot Park on Saturday. He’s undervalued, pitching like a top-10 guy and has a great matchup.
The Fish win this one on the shoulders of their ace.
Pick: Marlins ML (-155)
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
By Doug Ziefel
The first indication that this is a great bet is the market. If you can get this at bet365, this line differs by about 10 to 15 cents from the rest of the market.
Simply, the Diamondbacks are not being valued high enough tonight with their ace, Zac Gallen, on the hill. Gallen is one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young award, and he's already shown that he can dominate this Padres lineup this season.
In his last matchup against them, Gallen tossed seven shutout innings while allowing just two hits and striking out 11. Overall, the current Padres lineup has hit just .235 off Gallen, and they are due for sizable slugging regression.
On the other side of this matchup, the Diamondbacks will get to face 43-year-old Rich Hill. Hill was a questionable acquisition for the Padres at the deadline as he has not proven he can bolster the back-end of their rotation.
Hill has been hit hard this season, as he just does not have the stuff anymore to miss bats. On top of that, he's actually still due to regress, as his xERA is a full run higher than his season ERA.
Look for the Diamondbacks to give plenty of early run support to their ace and be up halfway through this one. (Play to -160)