MLB Best Bets Today | Thursday’s Picks, Predictions
(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) Pictured: Ronel Blanco.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | ||
| 1:10 p.m. | ||
| 5:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Reds
By D.J. James
Hunter Greene has been everything the Cincinnati Reds had hoped for when he was a rookie. He has been limiting hard contact while fanning an exceptional number of batters. His ground-ball rate and walk rate are below average, but everything else is coming together because of how well he throws his fastball.
His opponent Thursday will be the Diamondbacks, with Slade Cecconi taking the bump for Arizona. He was not the highly touted prospect that Greene was, but he prevents walks and does not give up hard contact.
The Diamondbacks are dealing with injuries to some of their best hitters, while the Reds have been lackluster against righties all season. Cincinnati has just a a 79 wRC+ and a strikeout rate over 28% against righties.
Neither team has excelled in against righties or in relief, so backing the better starter in Greene looks like the right move. Greene deserves some more respect from the market.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-118 via FanDuel | Bet to -135)
Mariners vs. Twins
By Tony Sartori
Not only is Minnesota on its home diamond, but it also will possess the clear hitting advantage, as the Twins outrank the Mariners this season in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Meanwhile, the pitching is likely to be a wash as both Logan Gilbert and Pablo López profile well analytically, while each bullpen is among the league's best thus far.
With that said, López paces Gilbert in xERA, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate. Yes, Gilbert's surface level stats are stronger, but that is why we are catching a generous number on the Twins, especially considering that López's 4.30 ERA is heavily weighed down by one bad outing.
Even if we call the pitching — both starting and relief — a wash, Minnesota is clearly the better hitting team.
Lastly, instead of laying -130 on the moneyline, I think it's worth backing the Twins at -1.5 (+175) given that each of their past five wins have come by at least a two-run margin.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+175 via Caesars | Bet to +165)
Astros vs. Yankees
By D.J. James
Ronel Blanco has looked phenomenal. In fact, he might be one of the only saving graces for the Houston Astros at the moment. He owns a sub-3.00 xERA and ERA, so this start is looking like it could be the real deal. Blanco does not notch a ton of strikeouts and has a tendency to walk hitters, but his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate have been well above average.
His opponent will be Marcus Stroman and the New York Yankees. Stroman has been decent for the Yankees, but his 2024 peripherals are questionable; his xERA is over 4.00 against a 3.40 ERA. He has always outpaced his expected ERA because of how well he can keep the ball on the ground, but hard contact could bite him at some point. Stroman is walking over 12% of batters, which is more crucial because he has walked more hitters in the last two years than he had before.
Both the Yankees and Astros are well above average against righties. The Yankees own a 123 wRC+ and 11% walk rate, while the Astros have a 17% strikeout rate and 105 wRC+.
In relief, the Yankees and Astros are neck and neck with a 4.23 xFIP and 4.24 xFIP, respectively.
Since these two are relatively close in other areas, betting on the better starter at the moment makes the most sense. Take Houston on the moneyline from +118 to -107.
Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline (+118 via FanDuel | Bet to -107)
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