Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, August 19.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Padres F5 ML (-142)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+420)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-145)
- Reds F5 ML (-180)
Padres vs Mets Picks
The Mets and Padres will square off on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Citi Field in Queens. Michael King will take the mound for the Friars, while Robert Stock will start for New York.
Stock has only made three starts and tossed 12 ⅓ innings, but they haven’t been pretty — he’s got a 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP to date.
I want to fade Stock, and I think I’ll do so by backing the white-hot Fernando Tatis Jr.
After his first-half slump, Tatis has finally reverted to his old form, with a 173 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Stock has a decent high-90s fastball, and he’s got some OK swing-and-miss stuff. But he also struggles with command (13% walk rate) and can easily get barreled up when leaving stuff in the zone (8% barrel rate allowed, 5.26 xERA).
Tatis can turn on fastballs as good as any hitter in the game, and I expect him to track one well once he gets ahead in the count on Stock.
I’m also taking a shot on San Diego’s F5 ML, mostly because King has been awesome this season (3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Picks: Padres F5 ML | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
Braves vs Twins Picks
The Twins will host the Braves on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game interleague homestand at Target Field in Minneapolis. AJ Smith-Shawver will start for Atlanta, while Taj Bradley will toe the rubber for Minnesota.
I like Bradley, but he’s been pretty inconsistent this season (3.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), and the Braves boast one of the toughest lineups in baseball — a lineup filled with left-handed hitters who could mash off the right-handed Bradley.
However, I’ll actually be backing a right-handed hitter in this matchup.
In three previous head-to-head at-bats against Bradley, Ronald Acuna Jr. is 1-for-3 with a double.
Bradley is a big four-seam fastball pitcher (46% usage), but he’s really struggled with contact this season (.382 xwOBA allowed on the fastball, 45% hard-hit rate allowed overall, 10% barrel rate allowed overall).
Acuna has struggled against fastballs this season (.195 SLG), but he was a monster against the four-seamer last season (.558 SLG). I’m hoping for a return to form in this matchup with a super vulnerable fastball.
Picks: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
Cardinals vs Reds Picks
The Reds host the Cardinals on Wednesday. Chase Burns will start for Cincinnati, while Matthew Liberatore will start for St. Louis.
Suffice it to say, the Reds have a big starting pitching advantage in this game.
Across 23 starts this season, Burns is 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP — he’s also recorded a whopping 151 strikeouts. The former No. 2 overall pick is starting to live up to the hype.
Meanwhile, Liberatore has struggled, pitching to a 5.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 24 starts this year.
I think the Reds easily jump out to an early lead.
Picks: Reds F5 ML
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 19
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Padres F5 ML (-142)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+420)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-145)
- Reds F5 ML (-180)
