Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Going Back to Jameson Taillon

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Going Back to Jameson Taillon article feature image

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jameson Tallion

It’s never fun to lose back-to-back over/unders, so let’s just focus on Sunday and ending the week in the right fashion.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 55-34-2, +17.4 units
Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Rangers Under 10, Rodon vs. Colon (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | O/U: 7.5

4:10 p.m ET

Probable Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (5-6, 3.96 ERA) vs. Tyson Ross (5-5, 3.32 ERA)

Yes, we’re going back to Petco after narrowly dropping the under in the series opener Friday night, as it’ll be the site of the latest Jameson Taillon start.

I’m 6-2 on over/under bets involving Taillon this year — all unders. I lost his most recent assignment earlier this week, but that was in no part due to the performance of Taillon, who notched his sixth-straight outing of allowing three runs or fewer. He surrendered a pair of runs across six quality innings to pick up his fifth win of the season.

That’s what this bet boils down to: Taillon continuing his emergence. As I’ve said several times before, he’s bound to become a perennial All-Star and he’s hitting his stride right now.

Meanwhile, we’re also going to get Taillon’s opponent in his most comfortable spot today, as Tyson Ross gets set for his seventh nod at home this year. That’s quite significant given Ross’ impressive home splits throughout his career, and especially when he’s working in San Diego, where he holds a career 2.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. And that’s within a large sample size consisting of 291 innings pitched.

But perhaps the most important aspect in Ross’ game is that he serves as a well of consistency. Only twice this year in his 16 starts has the 9-year veteran allowed more than three earned runs. He enters this afternoon’s series finale in a nice rhythm, having surrendered three earned runs or fewer in his last nine trips to the mound. Furthermore, he can be trusted upon to eat up innings before pacing the way for that stingy San Diego bullpen — Ross has thrown at least five frames in all but one of his starts this season.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-115)