Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan has that job for Sunday, August 23.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Phillies vs Cardinals NRFI
- Phillies ML
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Guardians -1.5
- Jose Ramirez Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Jose Ramirez Home Run
Phillies vs Cardinals Pick
The Phillies will host the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for Philly, while Kyle Leahy will start for St. Louis.
Sanchez is having another phenomenal year, sitting with a 16-4 record behind a 2.51 ERA and 187 strikeouts — both marks rank among the top-five qualified starting pitchers.
While Sanchez is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup, Leahy hasn’t been all that bad, running a solid 3.24 ERA.
Given the performance of these two starting pitchers, I think the NRFI is a strong play.
However, Sanchez has been unstoppable, and the Phillies are 36-30 at home this season. They have one of the most versatile lineups in baseball, and I think they ultimately win this game.
Picks: NRFI | Phillies ML
Nationals vs Marlins Pick
The Marlins will host the Nationals on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at loanDepot Park in Miami.
Janson Junk will take the mound for Miami, looking to improve upon a rough season. He’s running a 4.37 ERA across 92 frames.
I want to fade Junk, and I think CJ Abrams is a tough matchup for Miami’s right-handed starting pitcher.
In eight previous head-to-head at-bats against Junk, Abrams has four hits, including three extra-base knocks.
Junk throws a lot of four-seam fastballs (36% usage). Despite sitting around 94 MPH on average, the pitch seldom misses bats (11% whiff rate). Meanwhile, Abrams has posted a +12 Run Value against four-seam fastballs this year, slugging .574 against the pitch. He really turns on those.
Junk also has vast splits (.363 wOBA allowed to lefties this season, .270 against righties), while Abrams mashes right-handed pitching (158 wRC+ this season).
Picks: CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases | CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Rockies vs Guardians Pick
The Rockies and Guardians will duke it out on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game interleague set at Coors Field in Colorado. Foster Griffin will make his fourth start for Cleveland, while Tomoyuki Sugano will start for Colorado.
Griffin has been great this season, with a 3.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 25 outings. Meanwhile, Sugano has not been so great, running a 4.70 ERA across 119 frames.
Ultimately, I expect the Guardians to win this game decisively behind another stellar outing from Griffin.
I expect Jose Ramirez to be a big part of that plan.
Ramirez has already hit a home run off Sugano this season. Surely he can do it again at mile-high altitude.
Picks: Guardians -1.5 | Jose Ramirez Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs | Jose Ramirez Home Run
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, August 23
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Phillies vs Cardinals NRFI
- Phillies ML
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Guardians -1.5
- Jose Ramirez Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Jose Ramirez Home Run
