MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/22: How to Play Rangers-Athletics Over/Under
Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 22 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rangers-Athletics matchup.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After Aaron Judge went on the Injured List this week with a significant oblique injury (becoming the 13th Yankee on the injured list in 2019), it became clear that the Yankees would need to rely on their pitching staff in order to turn their season around.
Fortunately for them, no pitcher has impressed me more this season than Yankees’ offseason acquisition James Paxton.
On Sunday, Paxton joined Clayton Kershaw (2015) & Roger Clemens (1987) as the only pitchers EVER to throw back-to-back starts with:
- 12+ strikeouts
- 1 walk or fewer
- No earned runs.
He also became the second Yankees pitcher (David Cone, 1998) EVER to record 12+ strikeouts in back-to-back starts.
James Paxton was DOMINANT on Sunday, recording 12 strikeouts along the way. pic.twitter.com/HzMXC86lM1
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) April 22, 2019
Paxton has a trio of nasty pitches with his typically high and tight four-seam fastball (average 96 mph), a big curveball, and a devastating cutter. If you want to know why the swing in the clip above looked so ugly, look no further:
James Paxton, 98mph Fastball and 89mph Cutter, Overlay.
[11th K thru 5 innings] pic.twitter.com/AIjt8q1h9j
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 21, 2019
When you have to defend against a pitch that is 9 mph slower and dotted on the low inside corner, what are you supposed to do with a 98 mph fastball at your letters, other than flail after the ball is already in the catcher’s glove?
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 2-2 against full-game moneylines on Sunday.
My actual picks went 1-2-1, but I was only down 0.44 units for the day.
The favorites I backed went 0-2-1, but the plus-money Giants (+145) held onto a 3-2 win in Pittsburgh after Buster Posey’s first home run since June 19, 2018:
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 12 cents on both the Mets (-120 to -132) and Giants (+145 to +133) moneylines, was even on the Arizona F5 line (-110), and only lost a few pennies (-113 to -110) with Tampa Bay.
On Deck for Monday, April 22
All odds as of Monday morning (view live odds).
Based on opening lines, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five-innings (F5) on Monday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Detroit Tigers and the New York Mets as both the full-game and F5 moneyline plays.
I had a great edge on the Tigers against Chris Sale and the Red Sox, but it got postponed.
My other model pick might make you a bit more hesitant. Steven Matz and the Mets do seem like a surprising short favorite against the Phillies, after they lit up Matz for 8 runs, before he recorded an out, in his last start against them.
However, the public might be overreacting to one poor outing from Matz and ignoring both batted ball data and projections which suggest that he is currently as good of a pitcher or better than Jake Arrieta.
I have also noticed six separate professional steam and reverse-line movement signals on the Mets today, with just one steam pushback on the Phillies thus far. When my projections line up with the professional money, I’m not going to second guess anything.
Lastly, I played Over 8.5 runs in the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics game tonight. The Rangers have scored 89 runs against right-handed pitching, 6th in MLB, and the Athletics have scored 33 runs against left-handed pitching, 3rd in MLB.
Since the beginning of the 2018 season, The Athletics have also been the most profitable team to bet, on the moneyline, against left-handed starting pitchers. A $100 bettor would be 39-28, +$1,202, with a return on investment of 18%.
I love Oakland’s ability to trot out nine right-handed bats against Mike Minor tonight, following his recent (and first career) complete-game shutout.
Bets (So Far) for April 22
- New York Mets (-108) Game Moneyline
- Over 8.5 (-110), Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/22: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.