Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 22 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rangers-Athletics matchup.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After Aaron Judge went on the Injured List this week with a significant oblique injury (becoming the 13th Yankee on the injured list in 2019), it became clear that the Yankees would need to rely on their pitching staff in order to turn their season around.
Fortunately for them, no pitcher has impressed me more this season than Yankees’ offseason acquisition James Paxton.
On Sunday, Paxton joined Clayton Kershaw (2015) & Roger Clemens (1987) as the only pitchers EVER to throw back-to-back starts with:
- 12+ strikeouts
- 1 walk or fewer
- No earned runs.
He also became the second Yankees pitcher (David Cone, 1998) EVER to record 12+ strikeouts in back-to-back starts.
Paxton has a trio of nasty pitches with his typically high and tight four-seam fastball (average 96 mph), a big curveball, and a devastating cutter. If you want to know why the swing in the clip above looked so ugly, look no further:
When you have to defend against a pitch that is 9 mph slower and dotted on the low inside corner, what are you supposed to do with a 98 mph fastball at your letters, other than flail after the ball is already in the catcher’s glove?
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 2-2 against full-game moneylines on Sunday.
My actual picks went 1-2-1, but I was only down 0.44 units for the day.
The favorites I backed went 0-2-1, but the plus-money Giants (+145) held onto a 3-2 win in Pittsburgh after Buster Posey’s first home run since June 19, 2018:
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 12 cents on both the Mets (-120 to -132) and Giants (+145 to +133) moneylines, was even on the Arizona F5 line (-110), and only lost a few pennies (-113 to -110) with Tampa Bay.
On Deck for Monday, April 22
All odds as of Monday morning (view live odds).
Based on opening lines, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five-innings (F5) on Monday.