For Tuesday, May 20, I'm on four MLB home run props.
Read below for Tuesday's MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, May 20
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 20
Oneil Cruz (+520)
vs Reds (SP: RHP Nick Martinez)
The odds on this home run prop are great.
Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez has been an above-average matchup for home-run hitters in his career, allowing nearly 1.3 home runs per nine innings pitched. Even better, he forces a low strikeout rate (19.2%) while allowing a high fly-ball rate (41.3%).
Oneil Cruz boasts some of the league’s best power numbers — if he gets the ball in the air, there’s always a shot it leaves the park.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +450.
Trent Grisham (+600)
vs Rangers (SP: LHP Patrick Corbin)
Patrick Corbin is an excellent matchup for Trent Grisham.
Corbin has been a gas can for years, and Yankee Stadium is a fantastic park for lefty power.
These odds are too high for a guy who has hit 12 bombs on the season.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop around +525.
Jackson Merrill (+450)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
Chris Bassitt should start on the mound for Toronto, and he’s a good matchup for Jackson Merrill.
Bassitt was elite to start the year, but he’s regressed recently, allowing six homers across his past four starts.
He’s been a good pitcher in his career, but he’s struggled against left-handed power hitters, giving up 1.34 home runs per nine to the side in his career — that mark only increased in 2023 (2.03) and 2024 (1.54).
Meanwhile, Merrill is sporting a wicked 19% barrel rate.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop under +400.
Lawrence Butler (+375)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I made plenty of home run bets on this game, as the spot looks great.
The weather should be excellent for hitting in Sacramento, with mid-80s temperatures and winds blowing out at around five MPH.
Angels starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks was destroyed by left-handed power hitters last season, allowing 1.85 home runs per nine innings pitched to the side. Honestly, he’s been a gas can against lefty power for years.
Lawrence Butler is a good power bat, and although these odds are lower than usual, they aren’t nearly low enough — I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +325.
