The first prop on Sunday's slate takes place in Tampa, where the Rays look to enhance their lead in the AL East.
I'll also have two other picks from these matchups: A's vs. Guardians and Braves vs. Astros.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Sunday, September 20, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
MLB Player Props Today
- Griffin Jax Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (55%, Kalshi)
- Gavin Williams 8+ Strikeouts (52%, Kalshi)
- Martin Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (53%, Kalshi)
Red Sox vs Rays Player Prop
We'll look at Rays starter Griffin Jax for this prop. The reliever-turned-starter has been solid for Tampa, posting a 3.80 ERA, 4.40 xERA, and 3.86 FIP in 104 innings.
The innings are what stand out here. Since June, Jax has gone 5+ innings in 13 of his last 14 starts, and the only one he didn't was his first start back after a month-long IL stint. He also gave up six runs, so he pitched poorly, but he followed it with back-to-back five-frame starts.
Jax's line for outs recorded is 14.5, and since he's routinely gone more than five innings and the Rays still have a division lead to hold onto, he should pitch five full innings once again.
Pick: Griffin Jax Over 14.5 Strikeouts (55%, Kalshi)
Athletics vs Guardians Player Prop
The Guardians' pitching lab strikes again! It's been a masterful campaign for Gavin Williams, who needed to refine his command and did so. That's led to the fireballing righty posting a 3.77 ERA with a career-best 12.1 K/9 and a career-low 2.90 BB/9.
I love the idea of getting plus-money on Williams to get 8+ strikeouts. He punched out 8+ hitters in eight of his last 12 outings. Williams left no doubt that he'd reach that many Ks in those games, punching out 10+ in each one.
The Athletics are 15th in strikeout rate since August 15th, but the upper half of the lineup has plenty of strikeout options.
Henry Bolte leads off and strikes out 28% of the time, while Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, and Zach Gelof also have poor strikeout rates.
With the fiery fastball, the nasty curve, and how important this game is to Cleveland, I expect Williams to reach eight K's to cash our plus-money bet.
Pick: Gavin Williams 8+ Strikeouts (52%, Kalshi)
Braves vs Astros Player Prop
Coming into the year, the Braves rotation was Chris Sale and a bunch of question marks. One of those question marks surprisingly went away thanks to Martin Perez, who's pitching to a 3.06 ERA. Some luck has gone his way, as his xERA is 4.60 and his FIP is 4.25.
The prop to watch is Perez to go under 3.5 strikeouts. Part of the reason for the unsavory metrics is that he punches out just 6.54 per nine. And Perez is totally fine with that, as he throws his sinker 37% of the time and it sits around 90 mph.
Plus, the Astros rank 16th in strikeout rate since August 1st. Where they differ from a team like the A's is that their big boppers are among the best at limiting the punch-out. Five key cogs: Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Yanier Diaz, Jose Altuve, and Isaac Paredes each have an above-average strikeout rate.
So, I feel good about the Astros putting the softly thrown Perez sinker in play and giving us a winner on his strikeout prop.
Pick: Martin Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (53%, Kalshi)
