MLB's regular season is winding down, and the battle for playoff berths is heating up.
On Sunday, we have 5 MLB Best Bets, including picks for Phillies vs. Mets (1:10 p.m. ET, Citi Field), Braves vs. Astros (2:10 p.m. ET, Daikin Park), Yankees vs. Diamondbacks (4:10 PM ET, Chase Field), and Brewers vs. Orioles on Sunday Night Baseball (7:20 p.m. ET, Camden Yards).
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:20 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
PRO's Phillies vs Mets Top Prop Edge
By Action PRO
PRO projects Luis Arraez for 1.47 hits this afternoon against the Mets, giving us a 9.4% edge when compared to his current prop line of over/under 1.5, which is good enough to tag the over with a B- grade in our system.
The three-time batting champion has his sights set on a fourth title, with a .313 average this season and a 6-point lead over the Marlins' Otto Lopez.
Arraez already has a hit in his only career at-bat against Mets starter Jonah Tong, and every game is crucial now, as the Phillies fight for a playoff berth.
The Phillies 2B has surpassed this line in two of his past five contests and is no stranger to multi-hit games.
At a great price, let's back him today to get a couple in New York.
Pick: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits (+197)
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Sean Paul's Braves vs Astros Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Coming into the year, the Braves rotation was Chris Sale and a bunch of question marks. One of those question marks surprisingly went away thanks to Martin Perez, who's pitching to a 3.06 ERA. Some luck has gone his way, as his xERA is 4.60 and his FIP is 4.25.
The prop to watch is Perez to go under 3.5 strikeouts. Part of the reason for the unsavory metrics is that he punches out just 6.54 per nine. And Perez is totally fine with that, as he throws his sinker 37% of the time and it sits around 90 mph.
Plus, the Astros rank 16th in strikeout rate since August 1st. Where they differ from a team like the A's is that their big boppers are among the best at limiting the punch-out. Five key cogs: Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Yanier Diaz, Jose Altuve, and Isaac Paredes each have an above-average strikeout rate.
So, I feel good about the Astros putting the softly thrown Perez sinker in play and giving us a winner on his strikeout prop.
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Pick: Martin Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
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Grant Neiffer's Giants vs Dodgers Favorite HR Prop
We don't have a huge sample size on Giants starter Matt Wilkinson, but he's allowed a massive 2.63 HR/9 to righties and grades out as a great matchup for righty power.
Will Smith has been in good form recently, and I have the true odds for the Dodgers catcher at around +350.
Pick: Will Smith Home Run (+370)
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BARTOLO's Yankees vs Diamondbacks ML/Total Projections
By Sean Zerillo
BARTOLO projections show solid value on the Diamondbacks moneyline against the Yankees, with a 5.6% edge, and also on the total for this matchup, with 3.6% on the over.
Our model projects the Yankees for 3.76 runs and the Diamondbacks for 4.06 today, which gives Arizona the edge to win outright and would also bring the total under the line.
If you want to dive deeper into this game, it'd be wise to check out our new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
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Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120) / Under 8.5 (-115)
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Brewers vs Orioles Bet Labs Featured System
By Bet Labs
The "Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games" system focuses on regular-season MLB matchups where both teams are entering the second or later game of a series after producing minimal offense in their previous outing.
That is the scenario for this Sunday Night Baseball matchup after the Brewers' 1-0 victory against the Orioles yesterday.
When teams come off one- or two-game streaks of low scoring, particularly early to mid-series, the market can overcorrect or undervalue continued offensive stagnation.
This model anticipates that trend to persist—betting on the under when recent results and situational rhythm point to a slow-paced, low-output environment.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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