For Wednesday, June 4, I'm on four MLB home run props: Kyle Schwarber and Max Kepler (against the Blue Jays), Wyatt Langford (against the Rays) and Lawrence Butler (against the Twins).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, June 4
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 4
Max Kepler (+650)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Jose Berrios)
I'm going back to the well on Max Kepler, as he's in another good spot.
Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios has been a negative matchup for lefties this season, but there is no reason to think that will continue considering he has a career 1.43 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters.
Kepler only has a few bombs on the season, but his underlying numbers show he's due for some positive regression, with an 11.6% barrel rate and above-average hard-contact and fly-ball numbers.
I have the true odds here more than 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Kyle Schwarber (+350)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Jose Berrios)
I have no idea why the books have Kyle Schwarber priced so high, but I'm going to take advantage.
Schwarber is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and as I mentioned above in the Kepler section, Berrios has been a plus matchup for LHH.
I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Wyatt Langford (+500)
at Rays (SP: RHP Shane Baz)
This spot is great for Wyatt Langford — the books have him priced like Rays starter Shane Baz is much better than he is.
Baz has been a gas can for righty power this season, allowing 2.23 HR/9. While he's due for some positive regression, his K rate, fly-ball numbers, and hard-contact numbers are all great for righty power.
The weather shouldn't be great, but it's really humid with temps in the high-70s and wind blowing out slightly to left field.
I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Lawrence Butler (+350)
vs. Twins (SP: RHP Zebby Matthews)
It's another great spot to target A's hitters.
The weather over in Sacramento is great for hitting, with winds blowing out at 10 mph and temps in the mid 80s in what is one of the best ballparks in the league for hitting.
We don't have a huge sample size for Twins starter Zebby Matthews, but he grades out as a plus matchup for power.
Lawrence Butler has been hammering the ball recently — given the plus matchup, his odds should be around 75 points lower.
