The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees on August 18, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -110 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction
- Yankees vs Orioles Pick: Under 8.5 (play to 8)
My Yankees vs Orioles best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Orioles Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | +102 |
- Yankees vs Orioles moneyline: Yankees -110, Orioles +102
- Yankees vs Orioles over/under: 8.5 (-118o / -104u)
- Yankees vs Orioles spread: Yankees -1.5 (+146), Orioles +1.5 (-176)
Yankees vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Carlos Rodon (LHP, NYY) | Stat | Shane Baz (RHP, BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 4-12 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 3.30/3.66 | ERA / xERA | 4.00/4.19 |
| 3.43/4.03 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34/4.15 |
| 13.4% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 38.0% |
| .259 | BABIP | .320 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 84 | Location+ | 103 |
Yankees vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The Yankees got a rotation reinforcement in Carlos Rodon, who'll start this game. It did come at the expense of Max Fried being placed on the injured list, but Rodon will help.
Rodon's last outing came in late June, and it was a real bummer for the Yankees to lose him because he was pitching well. He boasted a 3.30 ERA with a 3.66 xERA and 3.43 FIP.
Outside of health, the Achilles' heel for Rodon during his time in the Bronx is the long ball. Looking at HR/9, Rodon went from 2.10 in 2023 to 1.59 in 2024 to 1.05 in 2025, all the way to 0.58 this year.
While 0.58 seems unsustainable, Rodon has underlying figures that pinpoint why he's keeping teams in the yard more. He ranks in the 84th percentile in barrel rate and 69th in hard-hit rate, and hitting the ball out is increasingly difficult with weak contact.
The Yankees' porous offense continues to struggle. Since July 1st, New York ranks 27th in MLB with an 83 wRC+. The only real way the Yankees are scoring is via the home run, ranking 13th with 48 home runs in those 39 games. However, their plate approach has disappeared, striking out 26% of the time and walking at an 8% rate.
You know who is among the best in MLB at hitting homers and drawing walks? Aaron Judge, and his presence is so greatly missed.
Even Ben Rice has been terrible lately. He's hitting .179 with an OPS around .600 in his last 30 games. They need Rice, Luis Garcia Jr., and several others to begin hitting.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Orioles will give the ball to Shane Baz to open this series against the Bronx Bombers. Baltimore was on the prowl for a reliable mid-rotation arm, and Baz has given them just that, posting a 4.00 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and 3.34 FIP.
Baz is going through a Rodon-esque turnaround in the home run department. He gave up more than 1.00 HR/9 in his prior two full big-league seasons, and it dropped to 0.58 this year. And since the Yankees' only hope of scoring is with a homer, Baz should be in for a solid outing.
Speaking of sharp off-season acquisitions, the Orioles bringing Pete Alonso in is a strong reason why they're in the mix for the final playoff spot. He has nine homers and a 168 wRC+ in his last 40 games — and in that time, Baltimore boasts the eighth-best wRC+ in the league.
Of late, Gunnar Henderson finally hitting has made the difference. He's hitting .370 with two homers in his last seven games. The season feels like a wash for the multi-time All-Star, but this stretch could salvage some of his season.
In all, I don't trust most of this Baltimore lineup. Some names, like Tyler O'Neill, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Coby Mayo, have gotten hot at points in the last month, but all three are very inconsistent. Encarnacion-Strand and Mayo have walk rates around 5%, which is the way to beat Rodon. He'll gladly get impatient hitters like them to chase.
Yankees vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
I view this as a strong pitching matchup. Rodon could give the Yankees a solid five or six innings before handing the ball over to a solid bullpen.
Meanwhile, it doesn't take much to hold this Yankees lineup down, and Baz has the stuff to keep them in check.
Give me the under here.
Pick: Under 8.5 (play to 8)
