The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on August 18, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Phillies are favored by -221 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +190 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
- Marlins vs Phillies Pick: Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Hits
My Marlins vs Phillies best bet is on the over for Griffin Conine's hit prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -117 | 8 -117o / -103u | +198 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -103 | 8 -117o / -103u | -214 |
- Marlins vs Phillies moneyline: Marlins +198, Phillies -214
- Marlins vs Phillies over/under: 8 (-117o / -103u)
- Marlins vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (-103), Marlins +1.5 (-117)
Marlins vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Cade Gibson (RHP, MIA) | Stat | Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 5.61 / 3.95 | ERA / xERA | 2.89 / 2.78 |
| 4.09 / 4.54 | FIP / xFIP | 3.12 / 2.88 |
| 8.3% | K-BB% | 23.8% |
| 49.5% | GB% | 43.9% |
| .330 | BABIP | .266 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 95 | Location+ | 106 |
Marlins vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Griffin Conine is enjoying the most productive stretch of his professional career. The Marlins outfielder holds a .273 batting average on the season, combining solid contact metrics with notable run production (13 HR, 30 RBI).
That production has elevated significantly throughout August:
- August Batting Average: .282
- Power Output: 4 Home Runs, 1 Double
- Run Production: 10 RBIs (including an RBI in three straight games)
While Conine holds a modest .143 batting average across seven career head-to-head appearances against Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, his current form tells us that he has a strong chance to overcome his demons.
Riding a multi-game streak with an RBI and putting together consistent multi-hit quality at-bats all month, Conine enters Tuesday's contest in ideal rhythm to collect a base hit.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
On paper, Phillies' ace Zack Wheeler remains one of the premier front-line starters in baseball, boasting a 10-4 record alongside a crisp 2.89 ERA and a matching 2.78 xERA across 20 starts this season.
However, Wheeler has shown subtle signs of fatigue over his last two outings:
- Earned Runs Allowed: 4 earned runs in back-to-back starts
- Hits Allowed: 13 total hits surrendered over those two appearances
- Command in the Zone: Higher rate of opponent contact on early-count fastballs
While Wheeler's overall body of work is elite, opponents have found success making contact early in counts during his recent starts.
That slight vulnerability in the zone provides a hot hitter like Conine ample opportunity to put the ball in play.
Marlins vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Action Network's PRO Projections evaluate Conine's hit probability significantly higher than oddsmakers have priced it. By weighing Conine's current .282 August batting average against Wheeler's recent uptick in hits allowed (13 hits over his last two starts), the projection model uncovers substantial value on taking the over on Conine's hit prop at near-even odds.
Wheeler remains a formidable force on the mound, but his recent starts have yielded higher contact rates than his season-long averages suggest. With Conine swinging one of the hottest bats in Miami's lineup and driving in runs consistently over the past week, the setup favors him finding grass for a base hit.
Trust the model's projection edge and back Conine to record at least one hit.
Pick: Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Hits (-107, DraftKings)
