I had a solid 2-1 day on Wednesday that could've been huge if the Yankees scored in the first inning instead of five runs in the second. Regardless, I'll take the profit.
I have two picks today on the standard small Thursday slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — June 12, 2025
Tigers vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Dean Kremer
This bet is basically a parlay of the Tigers YRFI with the Orioles NRFI.
The second part of that is the easier side of the equation, with Tarik Skubal on the mound. He's the best pitcher in baseball and has a 2.16 ERA that drops to 1.39 his first time through the order.
On top of that, the Orioles are terrible against lefties, with a 64 wRC+ as a team. That's nearly 50 points lower than against righties, easily the biggest drop in the league.
The Tigers' YRFI is the harder part of the equation, but likely enough to be worth taking at +240 odds. Dean Kremer has a first-time-through-the-order xFIP of 4.69 and an overall ERA just under 5.00.
He's been especially bad against lefties, allowing a .907 OPS this season. Three of the first four Detroit hitters are southpaws, and Camden Yards boosts left-handed hitters about 8% over righties.
As always with these bets, make it a half-unit.
Pirates vs. Cubs NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney vs. Jameson Taillon
The biggest part of this projection is the weather, as it looks like it's going to be one of those days in the Windy City.
The current Weather Edge forecast has the conditions reducing scoring by 14% and home runs by over 30% at Wrigley today, leading to a 7.5-run total.
Plus, the Pirates are a bottom-five offense overall and against righties. Jameson Taillon has a 3.54 overall ERA that dips to 2.67 his first time through the order, too.
I'm projecting their odds of a first-inning run being very low.
The Cubs, being a much better offense, are the greater risk here. However, they're on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the lefty Andrew Heaney, with their first two projected hitters both getting a notable downgrade against southpaws.
Heaney has been solid this year, especially early in games. His first-time-through-the-order ERA is just 2.57, which should be enough considering the weather-based boost.
