Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Manny Machado
MLB Wiseguys have been on a roll lately. After a brutal start to the season in which public favorites cashed at a historic rate, contrarian underdogs have woken up and started to bark again for the sharps.
Dogs getting 30% or fewer of the bets went 37-81 (31.4%), -21.8 units in April but in May and June have gone 97-145 (40.1%), +10.9 units. Regression to the norm, baby. Slowly but surely.
After analyzing Monday’s 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:05 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (+111)
7:05 p.m. ET
This is a classic Pros vs. Joes matchup at Camden Yards. Seattle owns the fourth-best record in baseball (47-31) and has been one of the top teams to bet on this season (+14.61 units). Meanwhile, the Orioles are just a half-game up on Kansas City for the worst record in the MLB (23-53) and have cost bettors -25.96 units this season. As always, sharps are fearless.
They see a profitable buy low opportunity on Baltimore tonight, who just took two of three from the Braves. Despite getting only 24% of bets, the Orioles have fallen from +134 to +111, signaling massive reverse line movement in their favor. Wiseguys hit the Orioles +120 three separate times across the market. Plus, Baltimore is a dog with a super high total (9.5), a profitable spot since 2005.