Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Orioles-Mariners, Two Other Games
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Manny Machado
MLB Wiseguys have been on a roll lately. After a brutal start to the season in which public favorites cashed at a historic rate, contrarian underdogs have woken up and started to bark again for the sharps.
Dogs getting 30% or fewer of the bets went 37-81 (31.4%), -21.8 units in April but in May and June have gone 97-145 (40.1%), +10.9 units. Regression to the norm, baby. Slowly but surely.
After analyzing Monday’s 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:05 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (+111)
7:05 p.m. ET
This is a classic Pros vs. Joes matchup at Camden Yards. Seattle owns the fourth-best record in baseball (47-31) and has been one of the top teams to bet on this season (+14.61 units). Meanwhile, the Orioles are just a half-game up on Kansas City for the worst record in the MLB (23-53) and have cost bettors -25.96 units this season. As always, sharps are fearless.
They see a profitable buy low opportunity on Baltimore tonight, who just took two of three from the Braves. Despite getting only 24% of bets, the Orioles have fallen from +134 to +111, signaling massive reverse line movement in their favor. Wiseguys hit the Orioles +120 three separate times across the market. Plus, Baltimore is a dog with a super high total (9.5), a profitable spot since 2005.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins (+114)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks are 44-33 and laying only -123 against the lowly Marlins (31-47)? Zona all day! Not so fast, say the Goodfellas. In the most lopsided game of the night, nearly 80% are taking the D-Backs, yet the line has barely budged (-120 to -123).
This lack of movement despite overwhelming public support indicates a sharp line freeze, with the books reluctant to adjust the number and hand out additional plus money to wiseguy Marlins bettors. Goodfellas at Pinnacle got down on Miami +109, and then sharps at YouWager joined the Fish Party at +115. Derek Jeter’s squad also fits two profitable Bet Labs systems: Bad Team After Win (+180.97 units since 2005) and New Series, All Signs Point to the Opponent (+186.68 units since 2005).
San Diego Padres (+125) at Texas Rangers, Over 9.5
8:05 p.m. ET
Sharps have targeted both the moneyline and the total in this Interleague matchup. The Rangers return home after a successful 5-1 road trip, and more than 70% of bets like Texas to keep the good vibes going tonight (especially with Cole Hamels and his 3.41 ERA on the mound). But wiseguys like San Diego to steal the series opener. The Fathers are getting only 28% of bets but 45% of dollars and they’ve moved from +152 to +125.
This stark smart money discrepancy and massive reverse line movement is proof that wiseguys are getting down on the road dog. Meanwhile, the Over is receiving just 45% of bets but 70% of dollars. Sharps at JustBet, Heritage and ABC all hammered the Over 9.5. Despite 55% taking the Under, the juice has moved from Over 9.5 -105 to Over 9.5 -110, another indication of Over liability.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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