It's another beautiful Tuesday on the Major League Baseball diamond, with 15 games happening across the league and under the lights.
Read on for our four MLB Best Bets Today for September 8, including picks for Cubs vs Brewers and Reds vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nick Martin's Guardians vs Orioles Best Bet
By Nick Martin
The Orioles finally snapped their six-game losing skid in the series opener, and a series sweep over the Guardians would put them firmly back into playoff conversation. Baltimore may be a little overvalued in the critical second game of the series, however, with Tanner Bibee seemingly more on par with Brandon Young than the surface-level results suggest.
Throughout his last ten starts, Bibee has pitched to an xERA of 3.49 with a FIP of 4.04. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 102 and a Pitching+ of 100 this season, and is seemingly about as effective as his 4.06 ERA suggests.
However, even relative to most starters, Bibee has really struggled working through the order for a third time, which may be a more livable flaw in this spot. Bibee holds ERAs of 3.48 and 3.15 the first two times through the order, compared to a 6.52 ERA the third time through. Though the Guardians didn't get any length from Joey Cantillo on Monday, given the depth of their bullpen and the importance of this game, they shouldn't force Bibee to stretch deeper into the outing than necessary.
Young has been highly effective where it counts of late with an ERA of 3.47 throughout his last ten starts, but his xERA of 4.26 and xFIP of 4.28 suggest some regression likely on the horizon. He also holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12% in that span, but stranding 88.8% of baserunners has masked a fairly average process.
Since July 1st, the Guardians hold a wRC+ of 99 versus right-handed pitching, while the Orioles have struggled to a wRC+ of 90 in that span while holding the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB. Cleveland is also four games above .500 on the road while Baltimore is 35-38 at Camden Yards, so statistically home-field advantage doesn't appear to be overly relevant.
Check out all of Martin's best bets for Tuesday on today's edition of The Leadoff:
Related Articles
Pick: Guardians ML (+103 or Better)
| | | |
Grant Neiffer's Rays vs Braves Best Bet
This is a good spot, and these odds are far too high.
Freddy Peralta hasn't been great this season, and he's struggled heavily with lefty power, allowing a high 1.59 HR/9.
Olson is one of the best power hitters in the league (37 bombs this season), and I have the true odds here around +330, making this a great bet.
Check out all of Grant's favorite HR picks for Dinger Tuesday here:
Related Articles
Pick: Grant's HR Pick for Dinger Tuesday
| | | |
Doug Ziefel's Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
This is a case where the name attached to the prop looks scary for an over. Misiorowski is running an absurd 0.75 WHIP and a sub-2.00 ERA, the best pitching season in baseball this year by several measures, but the number itself is set low enough that even his usual level of dominance clears it more often than not.
Across his 25 starts of three-or-fewer earned runs to open the season, he's still allowed hits at a rate that lands right around this line rather than well under it. His home splits this season show an average of a little over three hits allowed per start at American Family Field, and his floor in recent outings has been right in that range.
That last data point matters most here: Misiorowski just faced this exact Chicago lineup less than a week ago at Wrigley and got hit harder than his season line suggests, allowing five hits and five runs over four innings, with Alex Bregman doing most of the damage.
The Cubs have been one of the more disciplined, contact-oriented lineups in the league all year, exactly the profile that tends to grind out at-bats and find enough contact to push a low hits-allowed number over, even against a starter with this level of stuff.
Having the over on a pitcher with a 0.75 WHIP feels counterintuitive, and if Misiorowski is at his absolute best, he can absolutely finish under this number.
However, a 3.5 line is a low bar; his own home and recent-start averages sit right around or above it, and he gave up five hits to this specific Cubs lineup in his last look at them. That head-to-head familiarity, plus the tight number, creates plenty of value on the over.
Check out all of Ziefel's top MLB player props for today here:
Related Articles
Pick: Jacob Misiorowski Over 3.5 Hits Allowed
| | | |
Tanner McGrath's Reds vs Dodgers Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Reds in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool granting our PRO subscribers access to all the data we use to project MLB games each day.
Related Articles
Pick: Reds ML (+275 or Better)
| | | |
