MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Wednesday: Our Best Bets for Red Sox vs. Rays, Braves vs. Dodgers (Sept. 1)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried.
- We have another busy slate of Major League Baseball games Wednesday, with our analysts targeting two games on the schedule.
- Anthony Dabbundo and Matthew Trebby have you covered with their top picks.
- Check out below how they're playing matchups between the Red Sox and Rays and Braves vs. Dodgers.
We have another loaded slate of Major League Baseball games Wednesday, highlighted by two showdowns our analysts have targeted as their top angles.
Anthony Dabbundo gets us started with a monster meeting between AL East contenders Boston and Tampa Bay, with Matthew Trebby closing the show with his pick from the clash between NL powers Atlanta and Los Angeles.
MLB Odds & Picks
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Red Sox vs. Rays
Anthony Dabbundo: The Rays host Chris Sale and the Red Sox, opening as underdogs. The game is now a Pick’em, with both teams at -110. Tampa Bay has won nine consecutive games, including the last two against Boston.
Sale is a big name and has been excellent since returning from injury last month, but he hasn’t faced a good lineup yet. His only three starts came against Texas, Baltimore and Minnesota, none of which have the top level talent or depth in the order that Tampa Bay has.
So, despite his 2.75 xERA, we haven’t seen how good Sale really is and now he’s facing the first good lineup he’s seen since 2019.
Sale also hasn’t been that much better than his counterpart in Drew Rasmussen for Tampa. Rasmussen carries a solid 3.75 xERA, 3.86 FIP, and strikes out 10 batters per nine innings.
The Rays have a significant edge in the second half of the game once it gets into the bullpens. They have a significant edge in offense, especially where Boston has regressed significantly in the last two months with runners in scoring position and Tampa Bay has been among the league’s elite.
Rasmussen is more than capable of keeping this game close through five or so innings before the Rays edge in this matchup takes over. Anything -115 odds or better is good on Tampa Bay to win its 10th consecutive game.
Braves vs. Dodgers
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Matt Trebby: I’m not saying the Braves are a lock to beat the Dodgers, but there’s value on them at +180 odds.
Obviously, Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of this generation. He has a 2.51 ERA this season, although his 3.31 xFIP indicates some luck along the way through 24 starts. He has been lights out with a 1.55 ERA through five starts since being acquired by the Dodgers.
The Braves are a familiar opponent for Scherzer, though. I know Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies aren’t in the lineup, but Atlanta is hot right now atop the NL East and has had success against Scherzer, having scored 10 runs over 11 1/3 innings against him since the start of the 2020 season.
Meanwhile, Max Fried was due for regression after a 2.25 ERA and 4.05 xFIP last season, but his 3.54 ERA and 3.59 xFIP in 2021 indicate he’s been very reliable to the Braves rotation.
Atlanta lost the first two games in Los Angeles by a combined three runs and led for 6 1/2 innings Tuesday before the bullpen ruined Charlie Morton’s fantastic start.
I’ll play this to +175 since I don’t think the pitching matchup is as big of a mismatch as sportsbooks seem to believe is the case.