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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds & Picks: Back Arizona Against Madison Bumgarner (Friday, April 30)

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds & Picks: Back Arizona Against Madison Bumgarner (Friday, April 30) article feature image

Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner.

  • Coming off a seven-inning no-hitter, Madison Bumgarner starts against the Rockies.
  • Colorado's lineup has had success in the past vs. Bumgarner and has a thriving Jon Gray on the mound.
  • Kenny Ducey lays out why there's value on the Rockies as road underdogs.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Rockies Odds +108
Diamondbacks Odds -116
Over/Under 8.5
Time Friday, 9:40 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet

The Diamondbacks cannot be stopped.

After slumping to begin the season, Arizona’s bats have maintained a steady flame and powered the team to eight wins in 10 games. That includes a 5-3 comeback over the Rockies on Thursday, which came without two key bats in the lineup.

Can Jon Gray be the one to finally slow the Diamondbacks’ roll, or will this team continue raking? Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Colorado Rockies

The aforementioned Gray has been absolutely incredible this year. He’s increased his slider usage and seen a slight uptick on whiffs with the pitch, which hitters are hitting just .136 against. He’s also found more effectiveness with his four-seam fastball and changeup, which got knocked around last season (and for many seasons before that). As a result, he enters this start with a beautiful 34.7% hard-hit rate, having seen his strikeouts climb back to around league average after taking a dip last season.

Gray’s 3.32 xERA is certainly one thing that Colorado has going for it here. The other is a lineup with plenty of experience facing Friday’s starter for Arizona, Madison Bumgarner. Not only has Bumgarner been disappointing for a few years now, but he’s also struggled against some of the Rockies’ best bats.

Since 2015, Charlie Blackmon is hitting .356 in 45 at-bats off of Bumgarner, while Trevor Story has taken him deep five times and Garrett Hampson’s xBA sits at .332. Some of these results also came off of the better version of Bumgarner that we were used to seeing years ago. No one in that lineup will fear the lefty.

On top of all this, the Rockies are going to need to buck the trend of failing to play well away from Coors Field. They are 1-9 so far this season on the road, only fueling the arguments of those who say the Rockies best hitters wouldn’t be good at any other park.

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks decided to give Asdrubal Cabrera and Carson Kelly the night off on Thursday, and they still came out the victors.

This team just continues to pummel the baseball, scoring five runs per game in their last five, and getting contributions from everywhere. Even Josh Rojas, the talk of Spring Training, has finally started to heat up. It’s all clicking and as a result, Arizona finds itself with just three regulars sitting under 40% in hard-hit rate. That’s pretty impressive.

David Peralta seemed like the clear top hitter on this team, then Pavin Smith decided to put up a hard-hit rate that ranks in the top 7% of baseball with a .311 expected batting average. The results haven’t come quite yet for the young outfielder but judging by how he’s making contact, they’re about to.

Everything Arizona has going for it on offense is probably canceled out by Bumgarner. The southpaw has been a nightmare, following up a 6.48 ERA last year with a 6.31 ERA this year — a number that actually includes a seven-inning no-hitter! That’s just how bad he’s been this year, that his numbers still look like this. Interestingly enough, MadBum actually added some velocity back this year, but it has only made his cutter worse, with hitters ripping the pitch for a .364 batting average.

Rockies-Diamondbacks Pick

It’s hard not to ride the wave here with the Diamondbacks’ offense, but all good things have to come to an end eventually.

Jon Gray has been incredibly effective this season and should be up to the task of quieting down these bats. On the other hand, Bumgarner is good to get rocked just about every time he steps to the mound, and I’m liking my chances with a capable Rockies order.

The value here is all on Colorado to pick up its second road win of the year.

Pick: Rockies (+110)

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